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Thursday, 31 March 2011

Editing...

Is not my favourite task, for one thing I can't do it onscreen as I usually need to refer back and forth - and yes, I do know I can use the 'Find' or 'Go To' menu - so I end up printing it all out and then doing the red pen. The other trick is that you need to read the thing backwards - that way you aren't reading the story/text in sequence and spot all the repetitions and grammar errors. That's the theory anyway...

It's still hard work and time consuming. But, on a rainy day, it's a good break from my German Übungs ...

Wednesday, 30 March 2011

Conference on Islam in Germany

I am fascinated and annoyed by the current conference on the position of Islam in Germany currently underway in Bavaria. All the usual demands for "equity" with Christianity and "recognition of the 'right' to special treatment" are on the table. One political Party has, apparently withdrawn from the conference already.

I'm irritated by these demands and by the usual spineless crew of godless politicians who know so little about their own heritage and faith that they fail utterly to see the traps they are laying for the future every time they make some concession to those 'representing' the Islamic case. Where are the demands that Christianity be given equal status with Islam in Turkey, Albania and Kosovo? What about Syria, Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia where practicing Christianity in 'public' - which can be your own home in the presence of a Muslim! - is a capital offence?

I am perfectly happy for those who follow Islam to be permitted to do so. What I am not happy about is the removal of Gideon's Bibles from hotel rooms, the banning of Christian symbols and even the discussion around dropping or renaming the Holocaust Memorial Day because the Islamic Leadership don't approve of it.

- Islam has declared that the Christian doctrine of the Trinity is "Blasphemy." Blasphemy carries the death penalty in Sharia Law...

- Pakistan has a 'Blasphemy' Law that is regularly used to dispossess Christians of property and land, several have recently been stoned to death for supposed 'blasphemy' at the behest of Mullahs. Where is the Western politician demanding a cessation?

- Islam teaches that Christians are followers of a 'false' Faith, though their Prophet describes Christians and Jews as "People of the Book" - yet Christian Churches are now regularly attacked, worship prevented or disrupted and worshipers beaten and murdered - but western politicians say and do nothing.

- Christians may not hold positions of 'authority' over Muslims in almost every 'Muslim' country, yet in the UK, Islam is now being promoted as a 'truer religion' than Christianity and Muslims are being promoted ever higher in Government posts over Christians, Agnostics and Atheists alike.

- Turkey closed the last Seminary for the Armenian and Orthodox Churches in Turkey 40 years ago - and passed a law that only a 'native born' Turk may be the Patriarch. He must also have been trained in Turkey. The present Patriarch is likely to be the last, unless this law is changed.


It is time to insist on ground rules that are the same for everyone. If Islam wants to be accepted and allowed the freedoms of the west, then it must be compelled to grant them in the lands it dominates. There must be no compromise on this.

Tuesday, 29 March 2011

Carbon Free?

All the media and political hype and spin about CO2 has driven a lot of angry and intelligent people in to looking up the truth about CO2. One thing I noticed recently is that the politicians, Greenpeace, Fiends of the Earth and the rest of the fraudulent coterie promoting 'Green Tax' or 'Carbon Tax' and 'Carbon Trading' no longer refer to CO2 as Carbon Dioxide, but have morphed it into 'Carbon' and waffle on about a 'Carbon Free Future' or a Carbon Free Environment.

This just about does it as far as I am concerned. A 'Carbon Free' future is pure, unadulterated sewage. As any biologist or Organic Chemist will tell you, every living thing is Carbon Based. We breathe out CO2 every time we exhale - but it is still only 4% of what we exhale and that, in any given volume we occupy is so swiftly dissipated that you could just about measure it. So I'm making no apologies for posting this rant from Australia, where the people are waking up and starting to reject all the hype and pseudo science bandied about in the media and by the politicians and their 'Greenie' puppeteers.

Finally!!! Someone telling it like it is. We all need to learn about facts from Qualified people and that does not include POLITICIANS!!

What do you reckon about this?

All of you out there across the globe who have fought so hard to tackle the hideous enemy of our planet, namely carbon emissions, you know .......that bogus god you worship of "Climate Change" or "Global Warming"......well, I feel it is necessary to inform you of some bad news. It really does pain me to have to bring you this disappointing information.

Are you sitting down?

Okay, here's the bombshell. The volcanic eruption in Iceland, since its first spewing of volcanic ash has, in just FOUR DAYS, NEGATED EVERY SINGLE EFFORT you have made in the past five years to control CO2 emissions on our planet - all of you.

Of course you know about this evil carbon dioxide that we are trying to suppress - it's that vital chemical compound that every plant requires to live and grow and to synthesise into oxygen for us humans and all animal life.

I know, I know.... (group hug)...it's very disheartening to realise that all of the carbon emission savings you have accomplished while suffering the inconvenience and expense of: driving Prius hybrids, buying fabric grocery bags, sitting up till midnight to finish your kid's "The Green Revolution" science project, throwing out all of your non-green cleaning supplies, using only two squares of toilet paper, putting a brick in your toilet tank reservoir, selling your SUV and speedboat, vacationing at home instead of Bali, nearly getting hit every day on your bicycle, replacing all of your $1 light bulbs with $10 light bulbs ....well, all of those things you have done have all gone down the tubes in just four days.

The volcanic ash emitted into the Earth's atmosphere in just four days - yes - FOUR DAYS ONLY by that volcano in Iceland, has totally erased every single effort you have made to reduce the evil beast, carbon. And there are around 200 active volcanoes on the planet spewing out this crud any one time - EVERY DAY.

Oh, I don't really want to rain on your parade too much, but I should mention that when the volcano Mt Pinatubo erupted in the Philippines in 1991, it spewed out more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the entire human race had emitted in its entire 40 MILLION YEARS on earth. Yes folks, Mt Pinatubo was active for over one year - think about it.

Of course I shouldn't spoil this touchy-feely tree-hugging moment and mention the effect of solar and cosmic activity and the well-recognised 800-year global heating and cooling cycle, which keep happening, despite our completely insignificant efforts to affect climate change.

I'm so sorry. And I do wish I had a silver lining to this volcanic ash cloud but the fact of the matter is that the bush fire season across the western USA and Australia this year alone will negate all your efforts to reduce carbon in our world for the next two to three years. And it happens every year?.

Just remember that your government just tried to impose a whopping carbon tax on you on the basis of the bogus "human-caused" climate change scenario. No mention of a Tax on all the emissions caused by Prescribed Bush Fire Burning?

The Prescribed forest burning in Victoria alone puts more c02 into the atmosphere that all power generation in Australia in one year?

Hey, isn't it interesting how they don't mention "Global Warming" any more, but just "Climate Change" - you know why? It's because the planet has COOLED by 0.7 degrees in the past century and these global warming bullshit artists got caught with their pants down.

And just keep in mind that now the same government is in control, you will have an Emissions Trading Scheme - that whopping new tax - imposed on you, that will achieve absolutely nothing except make you poorer. It won't stop any volcanoes from erupting, that's for sure!

Please pass this on so’ everyone can know the truth on the “Global Warming - Climate Change” CON by Governments to introduce a new TAX

Monday, 28 March 2011

Elections ...

The elections yesterday have certainly proved interesting. I'm not speaking of the outcome, that was pretty clearly going to deliver some changes, what I don't think the main parties here welcomed was the "Green Bounce" I suspect the fear and uncertainlty the nuclear disaster in Japan has induced.

It was a very interesting experience for me, as a first time voter in the German system - yes, as an EU citizen I have a vote in the local elections, more than one as it turns out. I found myself wrestling with several ballot papers, one of which was as large as a Bradsheet newspaper. On this one I had a choice to make for 61 candidates from six Parties and a group of Independents. While this may sound a ridiculously large number of votes to those used to the One Cross and first past the post system in the UK, the Germans actually prepare you pretty well for it. A dummy ballot paper was sent to me four weeks ago and the various Parties all sent their candidate biographies and their manifesto outlines well in advance so I went into the Polling Station actually with a fairly good idea of who I would be voting for.

A second large ballot paper also had the several parties candidates in columns, and on this one I had to select 45 candidates - again with a good idea of who I wanted and why. Another, for the local Community Council was much simpler and again I had a wide choice against which to make five crosses.

OK, it took me a while to fill in my forms, but for the first time in a long while I had the feeling that I - and every other voter - was getting a chance to actually make some informed and useful choices. Under this system I can select several candidates across the parties. It isn't a case of voting for the one candidate the one party has selected, take it or leave it. Most of the Parties here have something I agree with so my choices are based on what I think the individulas standing for election might be able to contribute that will benefit the community they wish to represent.

Yes, there is still an element of ignorance and voting for one party only no matter what here, but what is absent is the lurching from left to right and back again as one Party dominates another and the ideology swings with the change. Because this system produces coalitions rather than majorities, the lurches tend to be smoothed out - and the system means that every vote actually counts, not just those who voted for the winner.

Friday, 25 March 2011

The CO2 Debate - Fact and Fantasy ...

The survey I published yesterday got the following responses from the people questioned. The initial sample was over 100 people. It was conducted in Australia (In case you were wondering) and the responses I have had from friends I sent it to confirm the original findings. I think these will astonish you ...

ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS

Q1. What % of the air is CO2?

Respondent’s Answers: nearly all were 20% - 40%, the highest was 75% while the lowest were 10%- 2%.

The Correct Answer: CO2 is less than a mere four 100ths of 1%! As a decimal it is 0.038%. As a fraction it is 1/27th of 1%. (Measurements for CO2 vary from one source to another from 0.036%- 0.039% due to the difficulty in measuring such a small quantity and due to changes in wind direction e.g. whether the air flow is from an industrialized region or a volcanic emission etc) Nitrogen is just over 78%, Oxygen is just under 21% and Argon is almost 1%. CO2 is a minute trace gas at 0.038%. We all learnt the composition of the air in both primary and high school but because most people don’t use science in their day to day living, they have forgotten this. Also, the vast bulk of the population have very little knowledge of science so they find it impossible to make judgements about even basic scientific issues let alone ones as complex as climate. This makes it easy for those with agendas to deceive us by using emotive statements rather than facts. For a detailed breakup of the atmosphere go to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth#Composition

Q2. Have you seen a percentage for CO2 given in the media?

Respondent’s answers: All said ’No’.

Q3. What % of CO2 do humans produce?

Respondent’s answers ranged from as high as 100% with most estimating it to be between 75% to 25% and only four said they thought it was between 10% and 2 %.

The Correct Answer: Nature produces nearly all of it. Humans produce only 3%. As a decimal it is a miniscule 0.001% of the air. All of mankind produces only one molecule of CO2 in around every 90,000 air molecules! Yes, that’s all.

Q4. What % of man-made CO2 does Australia produce?

Respondent’s Answers ranged from 20% to 5%.

The Correct Answer is 1% of the 0.001% of man-made CO2. As a decimal it is an insignificant 0.00001% of the air. That’s one, one-hundredth thousandth of the air. That is what all the fuss is about! That’s one CO2 molecule from Australia in every 9,000,000 molecules of air. It has absolutely no affect at all.

We have been grossly misled to think there is tens of thousands of times as much CO2 as there is! Why has such important information been withheld from the public? If the public were aware that man-made CO2 is so incredibly small there would be very little belief in a climate disaster so the media would not be able to make a bonanza from years of high sales by selling doomsday stories. Governments and Green groups would not be able to justify a carbon tax that will greatly raise the cost of everything. Major international banks and the stock market would not make massive profits out of carbon trading and many in the science community would not be getting large research grants.


Q5. Is CO2 is a pollutant?

Respondent’s Answers: All thought it was a pollutant, at least to some degree.

The Correct Answer: CO2 is a harmless, trace gas. It is as necessary for life - just as oxygen and nitrogen
are. It is a natural gas that is clear, tasteless and odourless. It is in no way a pollutant.
Calling CO2 a ‘pollutant’ leads many to wrongly think of it as black, grey or white smoke. Because the media deceitfully show white or grey ‘smoke’ coming out of power station cooling towers, most think this is CO2. It is not: it’s just steam (water vapour) condensing in the air. CO2 is invisible: just breathe out and see. Look at it bubbling out of your soft drinks, beer or sparkling wine. No one considers that a pollutant - because it’s not. CO2 in its frozen state is commonly known as dry ice. It is used in camping eskys, in medical treatments and science experiments. No one considers that a pollutant either. CO2 is emitted from all plants. This ‘emission’ is not considered a pollutant even though this alone is 33 times more than man produces! Huge quantities of CO2 are dissolved naturally in the ocean and released from the warm surface. This is not considered a pollutant either.


Q6. Have you seen any evidence that CO2 causes a greenhouse effect?

Respondent’s Answers: Most did not know of any definite proof. Some said they thought the melting of the Arctic and glaciers was possibly proof.

The Correct Answer: There is no proof at all. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (the IPCC) has never produced any proof. There are, however the following proofs that it can’t cause a greenhouse effect.
• It is true that CO2 can absorb heat a little faster than nitrogen and oxygen but it becomes no hotter because it cannot absorb anymore heat than there is available to the other gases. This is against the laws of thermodynamics. All gases share their heat with the other gases. Gas molecules fly around and are constantly colliding with other gas molecules so they immediately lose any excess heat to other molecules during these collisions. That’s why the air is all one temperature in any limited volume.
• Even if CO2 levels were many times higher, radiative heating physics shows that it would make virtually no difference to temperature because it has a very limited heating ability. With CO2, the more there is, the less it heats because it quickly becomes saturated. For a detailed explanation go to:
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html

The following facts show that even high levels of CO2 can make almost no impact on heating the atmosphere.

1. Glasshouses with high levels of CO2 - hundreds of times higher than in the air to make plants grow faster – heat up during the day to the same temperature as glasshouses with air in them. This is also true for bottles of pure CO2 compared to ones with air.

2. The planets Venus and Mars have atmospheres that are almost entirely CO2 (97%) yet they have no ‘runaway’ greenhouse heating effect. Their temperatures are stable.

3. The geological record over hundreds of millions of years has shown that CO2 has had no affect whatsoever on climate. At times, CO2 was hundreds of times higher, yet there were ice ages.

4. In recent times when Earth was considerably warmer during the Roman Warming and the Medieval Warming, the higher temperatures then were totally natural because there was no industrialization back then.
• Water vapour is 4% of the air and that‘s 100 times as much as CO2. Water vapour absorbs 33 times as much heat as CO2 making CO2’s contribution insignificant. But like CO2, water vapour also gives this heat away to air molecules by contact (conduction) and radiation, thereby making the surrounding air the same temperature.
• The Earth’s atmosphere is very thin so its heat is continually being lost to the absolute coldness of outer space (-270 C). As there is no ‘ceiling’ to the atmosphere, surface heat cannot be retained. The Sun renews warmth every day.

Over the last few years Earth has had much colder winters due to very few magnetic storms on the Sun. These four increasingly colder winters have been particularly noticeable in the northern hemisphere where most of the land is. Because of this, the Arctic has re-frozen and glaciers that were receding are now surging due to the heavy snow falls. The Arctic showed some melting around its edges from the mid 90s to the mid 2000s due to the very high level of solar storm activity at that time. But as the Sun is now entering probably 2-4 decades of low solar activity, this is expected to cause global cooling. For more detail, see the following page.

The climate has always been naturally cyclic and variable due to numerous natural drivers of which CO2 is not one. Over millions of years the climate has shown far greater changes in the geological record than we have seen over the last 200 hundred years - and there was no industrialization back then. The very minor variations we have witnessed over the last 100 years have all occurred several times even in that short period. Today’s changes in climate are common and completely natural. There are now over 50 books that provide numerous reasons why man-made global warming is false.

The Effect of the Sun on Earth’s climate It has long been known that the Sun is by far the major driver of all weather on Earth because it is the source of all heat and energy. There is absolutely no real-world evidence that the temperature has continually risen as we were led to believe. The hottest records in the USA and Greenland were in the 1930s due to a strong solar cycle. It became cooler from 1940 to 1970. This was due to a weak solar cycle. It has again become increasingly colder since 2006 due to another weak solar cycle. The Sun’s magnetic storm activity has now moved to an extended minimum so the next 2-4 maximums are expected to be much weaker than the last few have been. By 2011 the solar cycle should have risen half way back to its 11 year maximum but it hasn’t! It’s only just started. The last time the Sun acted this way was during the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830 which produced 40 years of very cold winters with subdued, wetter summers globally - just as we are expiring now. From 1450 -1750 a more intense Maunder Minimum occurred which caused the Little Ice Age. The next 2-4 solar cycles will very likely be low in solar activity causing noticeably cooler global temperatures for a few decades. For details see: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/02/solar-cycle-24-update and http://www.climatechangedenier.com.au/climate-change/another-dalton-minimum/

The effect of the current Solar Minimum is particularly obvious in the northern hemisphere where increasingly colder winter temperatures have caused massive snow falls disrupting transportation across Europe, Asia and the US.

Despite more than a decade of continual doomsday predictions of increasing temperatures and never-ending drought globally, the opposite has happened. There have been lower temperatures globally with greatly increased rain and snows over much of the planet since 2006. This has caused floods across most of Australia and most other counties, as seen on the TV news. This ended the global 10 year drought conditions from the mid 90s to the mid 2000s. There has been no drop in CO2 to cause this: in fact, CO2 has risen. There is no correlation between CO2 levels and climate. The reason CO2 levels have gone up a little is most likely due to the surface of the oceans warming very slightly during the later half of the century and therefore releasing a little CO2. (The oceans are currently cooling very slightly.) Mankind’s contribution to CO2 is so small it’s not measurable.

Polls on Climate Change

Polls in western countries now show that believers in man-made global warming are now in the minority with a sizable percentage of over 20% who “don’t know” if CO2 is causing any change. The obvious change to a cooler, wetter climate combined with the revelations of climate fraud shown by the Climategate emails has led to the change in public perception. Polls asking people what is the most important threat to them out of a list of 20 issues, place global warming at the bottom!

Popular beliefs are not fact

The bulk of the population of the western world believed that the 2000 Bug would destroy much of our technology on New Year’s Eve 2000 yet not one disaster occurred anywhere. We were told CFCs caused the Ozone ‘hole’ yet after billions of dollars were spent removing CFCs over 30 years, the slight depletion of Ozone at the South Pole has not changed. Scientists now think it is natural. Popular beliefs are often based on blind faith, ideology and profit rather than proven scientific evidence. History is littered with popular consensuses that were wrong.

A Carbon Tax

Taxing CO2 achieves nothing for the environment; in fact, it deprives real environmental issues from receiving funds. A carbon tax will have a disastrous impact on lower and middle income earners. Even if drastic measures were imposed equally on all countries around the world to reduce the total human CO2 contribution by as much as 30%, this would reduce total CO2 by an insignificant percentage. It would have no affect whatsoever on the climate but it would totally destroy the economies of every country and dramatically lower everyone’s living standards. Most people and politicians are making decisions emotively, not factually about a complex science they know virtually nothing about.

Gregg D Thompson

Climate Researcher Astronomer Environmentalist
Author of two science books
Business Manager and Director of 3 companies
Author of science magazine articles
Designer and project manager of special effects attractions
Nature photographer
Has a great interest in most sciences
Loves creating innovation in art


Perhaps the most appalling aspect of what this reveals is the extent to which the media have helped to mis-inform the public and the degree to which our political classes have seized on it as a means to achieving agendas and ideological goals they could never openly declare. Public ignorance of vast swathes of important things, partly through lack of education, but largely, I think, through misdirected study and misrepresented facts many are too lazy to challenge, is astonishing. The comedy duo, Penn and Teller launched a petition in California to get their legislature to outlaw the production of "di-hydrogen oxide" and almost succeeded in getting a serious movement going to ban water - that's right - from California...

It is said we get the government we deserve. As this research has shown media hysteria and public ignorance of the facts are a recipe for political chicanery. Greenpeace, Fiends of the Earth, Earth First and WWF all promote these myths, alongside various 'Research Scientists' and other bodies as they vie for bigger and bigger slices of tax money to further their own ideological agendas - and public fear and ignorance allows them to get away with it.

Thursday, 24 March 2011

CO2, Facts and Fantasies ...

I got this fascinating survey from a friend and felt it ought to be shared here. In Fact, I think it should be splashed across the blogosphere since it blows up a lot of the mythology Greenpeace and others have poisoned the climate debate with.This is a study done by a scientist, and the results are astonishing ...

How Well Has The Media And Government Informed The Public About CO2 Levels In The Air?

Ask yourself, your friends, family and work associates if they know the answers to the following questions about Carbon Dioxide (CO2). Be sure to write your answers before looking at the following pages.

Question 1. What percentage of the atmosphere do you think is CO2?

Question 2. Have you ever seen the percentage given in any media?

Question 3. What percentage of the CO2 is man-made?

Question 4. What percentage of the man-made CO2 does Australia produce?

Question 5. Is CO2 is a pollutant?

Question 6. Have you ever seen any evidence that CO2 causes a greenhouse effect?

I have asked over 100 people these questions. Virtually everyone says they don’t know the answers so ask them to tell you what their perception is by what they have learnt from the media, the government and Green groups. Let them know there is no right or wrong answer as you are just doing a survey as to what people have perceived the answers to be from these sources.
The answers to these questions are fundamental to evaluating the global warming scare YET almost no one knows the facts. However, without this knowledge we can’t make an informed decision about whether Climate Change is natural or not.
On the following pages are respondent’s perceptions followed by the correct answers. The bulk of the respondents (over 100 to date) are educated fairly well to very well. They comprise business managers in a diversity of large and small companies, those in medical profession, accounting, law, sales, engineering as well as scientists and trades people.


The answers will appear tomorrow - and I can promise that readers of this Blog will be astonished, amazed and perhaps even enraged by them...

Wednesday, 23 March 2011

A martyr to truth and faith ...

Archbishop Thomas Cranmer, the architect of the Book of Common Prayer and to a large degree, of the Church of England, was martyred outside one of the Oxford Colleges now disgraced by its Atheist Faculty, four hundred and fifty-five years ago this week. Five years ago, the current Archbishop of Canterbury, the Most Reverend Doctor +Rowan Williams, preached a sermon in Cranmer's honour. Having managed to find a transcript of the Archbishop's address, I post it here in tribute to a great man, a man who had his failings and his weaknesses, but who, in the end, showed vast courage as he died a hideous death at the hands of a Queen as fanatical as any al Quaeda terrorist ....

Cranmer lived in the middle of controversies where striking for a kill was the aim of most debaters. Now of course we must beware of misunderstanding or modernising. He was not by any stretch of the imagination a man who had no care for the truth, a man who thought that any and every expression of Christian doctrine was equally valid; he could be fierce and lucidly uncompromising when up against an opponent like Bishop Gardiner. Yet even as a controversialist he shows signs of this penitent scrupulosity in language: yes, this is the truth, this is what obedience to the Word demands - but , when we have clarified what we must on no account say, we still have to come with patience and painstaking slowness to crafting what we do say. Our task is not to lay down some overwhelmingly simple formula but to suggest and guide, to build up the structure that will lead us from this angle and that towards the one luminous reality. 'Full, perfect and sufficient' - each word to the superficial ear capable of being replaced by either of the others, yet each with its own resonance, its own direction into the mystery, and, as we gradually realise, not one of them in fact dispensable.

And in his last days, this was Cranmer's curse. If there was no easy certainty enough to kill for, was there certainty enough to die for? That habit of mind which had always circled and hovered, tested words and set them to work against each other in fruitful tension, sought to embody in words the reality of penitence and self-scrutiny, condemned him, especially in the midst of isolation, confusion, threats and seductions of spirit, to a long agony, whose end came only in this church minutes before his last hurrying, stumbling walk through the rain to the stake. It is extraordinary to think of him drafting two contradictory versions of his final public confession, still not knowing what words should sum up his struggles. But at the last, it is as if he emerges from the cloud of words heaped up in balance and argument and counterpoint, knowing almost nothing except that he cannot bring himself to lie, in the face of death and judgement. What he has to say is that he has 'written many things untrue' and that he cannot face God without admitting this. He cannot find a formula that will conceal his heart from God, and he knows that his heart is, as it has long been, given to the God whom the Reformation had let him see, the God of free grace, never bound by the works or words of men and women. Just because he faces a God who can never be captured in one set of words, a God who is transcendently holy in a way that exacts from human language the most scrupulous scepticism and the most painstaking elaboration possible, he cannot pretend that words alone will save him. 'If we deny him, he also will deny us'. He must repent and show his repentance with life as well as lips; 'forasmuch as my hand offended in writing contrary to my heart, therefore my hand shall first be punished'.

So Cranmer draws the terrible and proper conclusion from a lifetime of skill and balance, of 'rightly dividing the word of truth': what appears bit by bit in our words about God as they are prompted and fired by the Word Incarnate is the realisation of the God who is always in excess of what can be said...

It led Cranmer - as it led so many others in that nightmare age, as it led the martyrs of our own age - Bonhoeffer, Maria Skobtsova, Janani Luwum - to something more than a contemplative silence: to a real death. When we say that the word of God is not bound, we say that death itself can be the living speech of God, as the Word was uttered once and for all in the silence at the end of Good Friday. Cranmer speaks, not only in the controlled passion of those tight balances and repetitions in his Prayer Book, but in that chilling final quarter of an hour. He ran through the downpour to the town ditch and held out his right hand, his writing hand, for a final composition, a final liturgy. And, because the word of God is not bound, it is as if that hand in the flames becomes an icon of the right hand of Majesty stretched out to us for defence and mercy.


Cranmer's 'Collects', short prayers focused on specific themes or, in his words, 'conditions of men' are masterpieces of 'poetic prose' and even today address so many of the uncertainties and stresses of our lives, they remain a constant source of inspiration. A remarkable man, in remarkable times and faced with impossible choices.

May he rest in peace, and rise in glory.

Tuesday, 22 March 2011

A nice compliment

It is always flattering when someone posts a review on their blog of a book you are writing. The Blog "Tattered Covers" hosted by Billy Deen has just paid me that compliment. Do pay him a visit and see what he says.

International Aid ...


Thanks to the Postulant for bringing this and the link following to my attention. It is a small cartoon to my attention. It really does encapsulate the sort of twisted morality our media driven society has become.

I guess I've become far too cynical as I've grown older. Someone once said a week was a long time in politics, but I can't escape the feeling that if the Japanese earthquake had not involved the Fukushima nuclear plant, it would have already vanished to pages 5 or 6 of the dailies. As for the Aid fundraising for these things and the 'celebrities' who rush forward to help - I suspect most of it is about getting the 'media exposure' they need to stay in the limelight.

OK, so that is a little harsh, many do give generously, but in proportion to what is given by ordinary folk, it really is a case of farthings in terms of what they make out of the adoration and adulation of the gullible who will now keep thinking 'how generous 'X' was in the ....'

The people I really admire in all this are those who have gone over there and worked in the debris, the muck, the stench (Yes, stench of the detritus that was once a town/city/home...) and especially the fire fighters who have taken on the task of dealing with the overheating reactors 'up close and personal,' knowing they face serious illnesses at best and the likelihood of an early demise at worst.

Yes, our donations will help, and yes, we should be generous - in fact we must be generous, but let's have a lot less spin, blatant advertising and a lot more honest to goodness truth.

Oh, sorry, I forgot, we're dealing with the media here ...

Monday, 21 March 2011

An amusing take on the Royal Nuptials....

It's a while since I posted anything from Darryl Ashton, so here's his latest poetic take on an item in the forefront of the UK Media circus ...

THE ROYAL WEDDING
OF
KATE MIDDLETON
AND HIS
ROYAL HIGHNESS –
THE PRINCE WILLIAM

Now I’m quite a fan of the Royals
And I do think that they are all Spoyals
The Royals I like, can be boiled in a pan,
And be served with butter, by Gran!

Now William has popped the question at last
To Kate, who’s now in full cast
She will travel by Limo to the Abby to wed,
But leave in a carriage instead.

A sumptuous banquet with Nobs and Lords
Will be served at the elegant Halls
As the gourmet of class, is matched by the glass,
Of Champagne, that has been on ice.

I can see them all now in their gowns,
Twirling around all the grounds
What a bash it will be, with a good cuppa’ tea,
Please, won’t you save some for me?

The day is to be a Bank holiday.
And beamed all around in the sky,
That all Lands can watch, and drink their scotch,
To say cheers – and do the “Hop – Scotch”

As the wedding is now all complete,
And William and Kate say: Goodneet!
As they head off to their chambers,
with Kate in her knickers,
And William having probs’ with his kickers!

Prince Charles says: go for it Wills,
But Camilla, is reaching for the pills.
It don’t take long, for the noises to throng,
And suddenly; Kate bursts into song.

But during the hours of morn,
There are noises a – coming, from the lawn:
Who could it be at this unwarranted hour?
A spirit, could well be…Diana?

Your mum is watching us make whoopie?
That’s not very gracious, you agree?
I don’t know – what she wants, says Wills,
But her presence – is giving “me” the Willy’s!

BY

DARRYL ASHTON

Saturday, 19 March 2011

Management - Art or Science?

This question was posed to me on a networking forum for graduates from the university that awarded my Master's degree. The full question was: "Is managing people and projects an art or a science?"

There are really two questions here, since managing a project and managing people actually are two different things, though they share some skills. Starting with the people managing side though I would say this is in part a science and in part 'intuitive.' I have worked for many 'managers' who work 'by the book,' following all the correct 'rules' and procedures, but are lousy 'managers' because they fail to understand the needs of the people they are managing.

I am often apalled by how many claim to 'know Maslow's Heirarchy' and yet manage i ways that demonstrate that they have failed to understand it at all. I think that, in part, this is because their own personality traits and insecurities actually make them unfit to manage, though they may be highly competent within their own specialist field. This also feeds into one of the reasons I do not, under any circumstances, subscribe to the concept that anyone with a 'management' qualification can go off and manage any discilpine or activity. At some point they will find themselves undermining someone with a vast field of experience and knowledge and attempting to direct that person in the function of their job. This is a major reason for the failure of "Change Management" and many commercial enterrises. It is also one of the underlying problems in Whitehall and the communication failures between Government and People.

The best 'managers' I have encountered are often also the 'leaders' and the difference between a leader and a manager is probably more about style and method than anything else. A good 'leader' knows his people well. He/she recognises they have individual needs and works out how to make those needs part of the corporate fulfilment strategy. Ergo, they establish a system whereby X has a need for recognition or reward, but is unsuitable for promotion for a variety of reasons (Not being able to relate to others needs may be one!) and then finds a way to reward X for doing what they do best in the role they have. An example of this kind of leadership stays in my mind from the occasion I met one of the countries oldest established hereditary peers. Within minutes of meeting, he made me feel completely at ease, had me taking about my work, my position, my family and managed to make me feel I was the most imprtant person he would meet that day. All of it without my ever feeling I was being patronised or that in another situation we could change places. This is all too often absent in todays 'managers' who want to run with the hares today, but be the hound tomorrow and can't understand why this builds resentment.

The second part of your question, Project Management, again requires some 'science' of management since it requires an abilitity to organise, to evaluate and to assess, then to build the Critical Path Process by which the project can be completed on time, on budget and as planned. It requires a lot of people skills in dealing with different discipilnes and it requires clarity of thinking - and it is NOT a team effort. As the old joke says, a camel is a horse designed and built by a committee. Once again some of the worst projects I have worked on were 'managed' by people with no technical background, yet they presumed to 'manage' the project by insisting that each of the technical people involved submit detailed 'reports' at every meeting, yet never read anything more than the 'Executive Summary' and even then patently didn't grasp the importance of some of the details they were inclined to dismiss as 'details we can work out later...' Frequently 'later' is far too late.

By contrast the best projects I have been involved in were led by people with a technical background who were good at assigning a task, allowing the person assigned to get on with it and bring back to the table a detailed proposal for achieving that part of the proposal. They micro-managed where it required it and stood back where it didn't.

This contrasts sharply with the Prince 2 process which, to the best of my knowledge has never delivered a project on time or on budget, though every government 'project' is now required to follow this process. The problem with it is that it requires reports and a range of other 'paper trail' form filling activities which are supposed to ensure adherence to the project outcomes, but this simply adds a layer of bureaucracy and cost without any direct benefit to the project.

I think one of the things we have forgotten or lost in the last forty or so years is that management is a function of a wide range of technical and non-technical activities and it is folly to think that someone trained in office management can transfer to managing the production line of a factory. Likewise in Whitehall, someone who has spent years developing their management skills in - say - immigration - can transfer to a department and 'manage' - say - the fire policy unit with no knowledge or understanding of how or why the professionals in that department wish to develop something in a certain way. It leads immediately to a clash and usually ends in building frustration and confrontation between manager and expert. Maslow Rules!

In conclusion I think 'management' is a much abused term and concept. There is a lot of 'science' to it, but the 'art' lies in the 'manager' being able to 'sell' his/her perception of the corporate 'need' for progress, for teamwork and for the achievement of the common goal to those they manage. As I said earlier, it requires a high degree of intuition and it certainly requires a degree of confidence and security in oneself that many of the 'managers' I have suffered under over the last twenty or so years lacked.

I once encountered a definition of the difference between a Manager and a Leader which said -

"Managers always do things right; Leaders always do the right thing."

I would suggest that if you are managing people or projects you have to know the difference and when to do things right and when to throw away the 'rules' and do the right thing.

I have made it a rule never to blame someone on my staff when things went wrong. Responsibilty always rests with the person in charge, even when it is delegated with a task to someone lower down the food chain of management. If there was a problem in my department or section, I took responsibility and then sat down with the person concerned to find a solution, something my Chief always found difficult because, at the end of the day, the ultimate responsibility was his - and by being completely open with him he found it difficult to do more than acknowledge that I had identified the problem, and found a solution.

Sadly, he was an exception as I discovered working under the 'new regime' in the UK - but that is another story.

Friday, 18 March 2011

International Climate Science Coalition

This short video clip on the International Climate Science Convention is worth watching.

It's good to see a real scientist getting steamed up about what the IPCC 'team' did to make their data fit the model. I'll say only that he is scathing and suggests that what was done there should result in a few PhDs being recalled!

Thursday, 17 March 2011

A good review of Their Lordships Request ...

Their Lordships Request has been reviewed on BlogCritics and I'm rather pleased with the result. Please do take a look at it.

St Patrick's Day ...

Yes, I am wearing something green. But the best way I can think of marking it is to post the Saint's own poetic expression of his faith.

St Patrick's Lorica

I bind unto myself today
The strong Name of the Trinity,
By invocation of the same
The Three in One and One in Three.

I bind this today to me forever
By power of faith,
Christ's incarnation;
His baptism in Jordan river,
His death on Cross for my salvation;
His bursting from the spiced tomb,
His riding up the heavenly way,
His coming at the day of doom
I bind unto myself today.

I bind unto myself the power
Of the great love of cherubim;
The sweet 'Well done' in judgment hour,
The service of the seraphim,
Confessors' faith, Apostles' word,
The Patriarchs' prayers, the prophets' scrolls,
All good deeds done unto the Lord
And purity of virgin souls.

I bind unto myself today
The virtues of the star lit heaven,
The glorious sun's life giving ray,
The whiteness of the moon at even,
The flashing of the lightning free,
The whirling wind's tempestuous shocks,
The stable earth, the deep salt sea
Around the old eternal rocks.

I bind unto myself today
The power of God to hold and lead,
His eye to watch, His might to stay,
His ear to hearken to my need.

The wisdom of my God to teach,
His hand to guide,
His shield to ward;
The word of God to give me speech,
His heavenly host to be my guard.

Against the demon snares of sin,
The vice that gives temptation force,
The natural lusts that war within,
The hostile men that mar my course;
Or few or many, far or nigh,

In every place and in all hours,
Against their fierce hostility
I bind to me these holy powers.

Against all Satan's spells and wiles,
Against false words of heresy,
Against the knowledge that defiles,
Against the heart's idolatry,
Against the wizard's evil craft,
Against the death wound and the burning,
The choking wave, the poisoned shaft,
Protect me, Christ, till Thy returning.

Christ be with me, Christ within me,
Christ behind me, Christ before me,
Christ beside me, Christ to win me,
Christ to comfort and restore me.
Christ beneath me, Christ above me,
Christ in quiet, Christ in danger,
Christ in hearts of all that love me,
Christ in mouth of friend and stranger.

I bind unto myself the Name,
The strong Name of the Trinity,
By invocation of the same,
The Three in One and One in Three.
By Whom all nature hath creation,
Eternal Father, Spirit, Word:
Praise to the Lord of my salvation,
Salvation is of Christ the Lord.

Wednesday, 16 March 2011

I despair ...

It was, I expect, inevitable. Already I am receiving emails suggesting that the Tokyo earthquake is the start of the 'End of the World' predicted by that favourite book for misquotation, the Bible. Someone, presumably in the US, but I could well be wrong, and certainly on the 'fundamentalist' end of the religious spectrum, has started an email suggesting that 9/11 (New York), 1/11 (Haiti) and now 3/11 (Tokyo) are all linked and signs of the coming end...

That gave me a desire to scream, but then I stumbled across someone trying to make a link between "Anthropomorphic Global Warming" (AGW) and an increase in the strength of earthquakes and had to go and lie down in a darkened room for a bit.

According to the AGW suggestion, the melting of glaciers has caused an 'isostatic bounce' which has triggered an increase in the number of earthquakes in the last 30 years. Really? Since on a geological timescale these things happen over thousands of years, if not millions, the last 30 years is not statistically significant. There is another reason for the increase in earthquakes - the number of seismic stations has gone from 164 in the 1960s to over a thousand in the last thirty. We are now measuring quakes in places we simply didn't have records for before this.

Plate tectonics is a very interesting subject, one that is still not fully explored, but as with any system in movement, if it cannot move smoothly and continuously past whatever it is in contact with, there has to be stress. Stress has to be relieved. When two plates build up stress and then release it - you get an earthquake. I'm glad to say that geologists all over the internet are jumping up and down and foaming at the mouth over this suggestion by some idiot in Green Peace.

This sort of psuedo-science is precisely why people are so distrustful of anything to do with science these days. Right, back to my darkened room. With all the other problems in Tokyo at present, no one needs this sort of blatant scaremongering. Sadly, I have also no doubt that there are enough idiots out there who believe this sort of garbage to make the donations to Green Peace keep rolling in - and for governments to keep throwing tax money into "research" on the subject!

Now I'm really upset ....

Tuesday, 15 March 2011

Not getting down to it ...

Having had a successful day finishing off work and getting a number of other things done yesterday, I'm not doing so well today. First, I've lost an important file on the computer. I can't find it anywhere in any of the directories and folders, so I can only assume it must be permanently gone down the electronic chute ...

Never mind, I'm now about to pack in and find some lunch.

Then some German Übungs in preparation for tonight's classes ...

Some informative links to the nuclear discussion

I have found a number of informative articles posted about the nuclear power plant emergency in Japan. I have to say that nearly all of them have comments attached by idiots who are obviously Greenpeace trolls who simply hate anyone arguing with their "ban all nuclear and let's live in caves" point of view.

Bravenewclimate has some very good information and illustrations on the construction and design of the reactors involved. They are Boiling Water Reactors, similar to Pressurised Water Reactors and totally unlike the modified Magnox type that was involved at Chernobyl.

Another site, ANS Nuclear Cafe, has regular updates on the situation and some really intelligent discussions from people who work in the industry and know what they are talking about.

Another very lucid article appears on the website Morgsatlarge - Blogoriphic. It has a fairly lengthy introduction, but is written by an engineer and addresses the procedures and the problems that have arisen. I note that it also links to both the sites I have linked above.

Monday, 14 March 2011

Nuclear debate

The nuclear problem in Japan is being endlessly discussed on TV at present. I suppose it has provided the perfect opportunity for the anti-nuclear brigade to trot out all their usual misinformation and prejudice. Though my command of the language is, as yet, imperfect, I can't overlook some of the attempts to claim that what has happened in Japan "could happen here" which I find annoying.

Why annoying? Put simply, this is a case of not comparing "apples with apples." The media interviewers keep making reference to Chernobyl, but what has happened in Japan is nothing like what happened in Chernobyl and it is, in my view, a blatant attempt to stir up fear and promote the anti-nuclear campaign. None of the nuclear plants in Europe are likely to face the same combination of problems as the Japanese plant - for one thing none are near major earthquake faults. The plant in Japan faced a near "million to one" combination of disasters. First, the earthquake was way in excess of what any building has yet been planned to withstand. (The Richter Scale operates on a logarithmic progression so a single "point" difference makes a huge difference in forces unleashed.) Secondly, the quake triggered the safety systems, damping out the fuel rods, but it also triggered the shutdown of power right across the region, so the coolant pumps for the reactor had to draw on the back-up power, diesel generators - which were then swamped by the massive tidal wave. The quake also damaged the coolant pumps for one reactor, preventing them from operating, but the remainder continued to function on the third back-up, battery power. The trouble is, the batteries can only do this for a maximum period and no one seems to have been able to bring in more generators to support them.

The chances of this happening in Europe in a like sequence are extremely remote.

What is concerning me is that this emergency - and it is an emergency - will now be used to prevent the renewal of existing nuclear plants and the building of the new ones we need. Despite the hype, neither wind nor solar can or will deliver the levels of energy demand Europe needs if it is to continue to support the lifestyles, development and technology we need to remain competitive in the emerging world we live in.

What we need is more truth, less hype and prejudice and a lot more honesty from the "Green" lobby, whose demands, policies and downright lies will lead inexorably to our permanent impoverishment and dependence on less paranoid and less "ethical" peoples and nations in the not too distant future.

Sunday, 13 March 2011

The power of nature ...

The quake in Japan is a truly awesome reminder of the power of nature. An earthquake of this magnitude - does it really matter if it was 8.9 or 9.0 on the Richter scale? - unleashes forces humanity can't even beging to comprehend. Watching the YouTube videos of the tsunami makes one very aware of the power of water as well.

The reports I'm seeing suggest the death toll is likely to be over 10,000 and I suspect that is on the low end of this disaster. I'm glad to see the US has sent one of their giant carriers to the scene and that it is already engaged in humanitarian relief, refueling Japanese rescue aircraft and providing emergency hospital services and clean water as well as troops and sailors to help in the rescue effort. A pity the UK is not in a position to do anything similar - all our mini-carriers are now either scrapped or out of service and the new ones, if they are ever finished, won't be available for another 10 years. So much for the UK being a "Global Power" these days...

At least the Emergency Services have been able to respond, sending a corps of volunteers to join the massive international relief effort.

All the rest of us can really do is pray for those affected by this massive tragedy - and hope that the world will respond generously when the rebuilding can be started.

Saturday, 12 March 2011

Nuclear Safety

I suppose it was to be expected that the Greens and Greenpeace would immediately start screaming about a "nuclear blast" and "nuclear catastrophy" on the same scale as Chernobyl at the Japanese Nuclear Plant. What a pity they believe their own mythology, which has more to do with fiction such as the Forsyth novel "China Syndrome" than reality. The safety systems at the Japanese plant operated, shutting down the reactors immediately the quake began. With this design the fuel rods are ejected into metal canisters which isolates them and stops the reaction. Several news channels have carried this together with expert assessments, yet the anti-nuclear lobby continue to rant about "meltdown" and "nuclear blasts."

The problem in Japan at present seems to be to identify the cause of the explosion, which several news reports say is not in the Reactor House, and I have to say that the video footage I have seen suggests the failure of a pressurised system, possibly a high pressure hydraulic system. The second problem appears to be that some of the containment cells for the fuel rods have been damaged, allowing radiation to leak. One report suggests that the Japanese are preparing to simply flood the affected reactor chamber with sea water and boric acid. The acid absorbs the radiation and reacts with the radioactive isotopes, reducing the threat they pose. This does mean that the reactor will then have to be abandoned as the acid and the sea water will place it beyond repair.

I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that the ignoramuses of the anti-nuclear lobby are already screaming for the immediate closure of all nuclear powerplants on the grounds that "it could happen here!" That is extremely unlikely. We are not located on a major fault, none of the power plants they want banned, closed and replaced with useless windmills are anywhere near such a fault and even if the core does 'melt down' - very unlikely in a PWR or AGR system - you don't get a "runaway chain reaction" such as that postulated in Forsyth's book.

At this point a little less hype and a lot more common sense and truth would be far more sensible than the Greenpeace anti-nuclear garbage being spouted to whip up fear.

Thursday, 10 March 2011

International Climate Science Coalition

I've just located this blog and included it in my Blog Roll. It is run by Dr Tim Ball, based in Victoria, BC, Canada, but he opens with some fascinating stuff on droughts and floods in Australia.

And none of it based on 'computer models' either! International Climate Science Coalition is well worth following!

I wonder how long it will be before the fanatics from the 'Global Catastrophic Climate Change/The world will drown in melting Ice lobby launch an attack on his character or his credentials - or both?

Lent...

Has officially begun - that was really what the Carnivals of the last couple of days were about. So last night we attended a Eucharist and received the 'Imposition of Ashes' on our foreheads as a mark of the penitence that Lent is all about.

In former times it was about fasting, rather in the same manner as Ramadan is kept in Islam, though these days most Christians simply forgo some luxury they normally enjoy for the duration ...

I'm not saying - as I usually slip up somewhere down the line at least once!

Tuesday, 8 March 2011

Unsettled science ...

The climate is certainly undergoing some change, but are the models reliable and is the 'science' real, or the 'spin' and 'selective' stuff 'cherry-picked' and intended to prise funds from governments or serve the ideologies of various eco-terror groups or Marxist Socialists intending to destroy capitalism and impose their idea of Utopia? Sadly, on both sides of the debate there are those who will not accept any argument other than their own and once you add in the vested interests of the likes of the CRU at East Anglia University, Greenpeace, Fiends of the Earth and numerous other University "Climatology Faculties" and the UN's IPCC, the picture gets even more muddied.

The fact is that statistics are very tricky things to interpret and though they can show trends, they are NOT predictive - especially when fed into 'models' designed to deal with real hard data and show what has happened rather than what will happen.

I have taken the following from the Blogs "Watt's Up With That" and "Climate etc." both run by Climate Scietists, probably best described as not subscribing to the IPCC/Greenpeace vision of an Earth drowning in fabulous sea level rises due to melted polar ice or a planet roasting in a toxic superheated atmosphere like that of Venus. These comments are extremely informative and both from scientists ...

And the posts to which they are responding are very well worth the reading time.

Jeff Glassman

Epistemic level grading is a multi-pronged distraction.

It is nominated to be an official distraction for certified climatologists who may apply it to safely ignore external criticism. It’s a softer version of CRU ridiculing the quality of non-conforming journals, or conspiring to shun a journal that published a heretical article and suggesting the journal be stripped of its peer-reviewed status.

The levels are intended to distract the policymakers who fund climatologists and their labs, and who are supposed to restrict carbon emissions. The distraction is from those deemed not qualified to object, reducing science to selected expert testimony. Only the Preacher may interpret the Word — the others are heretics or the unwashed indigenous for the harvest of cultural imperialism.

The four levels are also a distraction from the fact that climatologists do not actually sit atop the tree of epistemology. In the epistemological hierarchy, climatology is subservient to the laws of physics, to thermodynamics, to system science, to science in general, and to ethics.

Putting on a Level 0 hat, here are some particular ripe examples:

Laws of physics: IPCC disregards the Beer-Lambert Law, which governs radiative transfer. It disregards Henry’s Law of solubility, governing CO2 flux, to make natural CO2 more soluble than the anthropogenic variety.

Thermodynamics: IPCC models the surface layer of the ocean in thermodynamic equilibrium, essential to the manufacture of its false bottleneck for human CO2 emissions.

System science: IPCC thinks feedback, which it adapted from system science, is either an illusory relation between correlated processes or a computer parameter calculated at run time. Feedback actually is the transfer of material, energy, displacement, potential, or information from within a system that modifies the system’s inputs. As a result, IPCC models climate open-loop, as, for example, with cloud albedo, and is unable to calculate any closed-loop gain.

Science: IPCC models climate without accounting for the known, dominant climate events of the past (e.g., the ice ages, the interglacial epochs, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, sudden changes in the slope of temperature instrument record), and predicting only an unverifiable catastrophe. By inference, its models predict a near term trend in temperature, which has failed validation. IPCC models, which don’t even pretend to work in the long run of past epochs, nor in the short run of weather, are advertised to predict a looming, mid-term catastrophe. It’s like accounting with the least significant [and] the most significant figures obliterated, leaving just the middle, insignificant figures.

Duty & Ethics: IPCC violates its public trust by employing chartjunk to create faux fingerprints of human activity on atmospheric CO2. IPCC in its quest for recognition, control, and profit relies on an unvalidated model, at best a hypothesis, to foster public panic.

And
Peter Taylor says:
March 6, 2011 at 6:18 am

Joel Shore is concerned about propaganda and significance over the quotes from Phil Jones – up until that admission, the BBC had been totally propaganderised to believe that global warming had accelerated. Then behind the scenes, their key people read my book ‘Chill: a reassessment of global warming theory’ – which you might do also if you truly believe in applying the rigours of science – I would be glad to have your criticisms too. I also briefed their chief interviewer over the phone before the interview.

So then you get less propaganda and more science – such as how much statistically significant warming has their been – and Jones proffered the none since 1995 date. I would have said 1998, but have less acess to the statistics than he.

As for trends – the real science shows that there was an even steeper warming trend from 1920-1940, especially in the northern hemisphere but also global. And another trend from 1945-1975 that was also global and cooling (and not, as the modellers thought for 30 years, due to human emissions of sulphur – but they have not publicised that new science). Thirty year trends can be very misleading.

There is nothing new in the late 20th century warming signal – not the rate nor the amplitude and indeed the centennial trend is a continuation of a longer term recovery from the trough of 200 years ago – and it would be equally foolish to expect this trend to continue, since there is a larger cycle at play.

This IS the science, Joel, that the propaganda machine of AGW does not want to admit to. And by the way – there is a quiet revolution going on in the calculations of CO2's warming potential. Hitherto, the radiative forcing factor (RF) was calculated according to offline data codes largely within the private sector and spawned by NASA – it is a complex business and the paper trail of references eventually leads to some very grey literature. This is about to change. The writing on the wall says that the RFs have been way over-estimated. That means CO2 does not have the power the earlier modellers assumed – by the time it reaches 200 ppmv, its greenhouse work is all but done. That is why you find no evidence for either initiation or amplification of temperarure changes in the ice-cores. The effect of CO2 is not only too late (time lagged) but not enough to register statistically in the correlations. This was a mystery until now – and the simple answer is, CO2 has very little extra power to heat the atmosphere or surface at the levels that are relevant (from 200ppmv upwards).

Good science and statistical analysis will eventually show this and all of these models will be history. Climate change, however, will still be a major issue – which is why people like the sceptical Global Warming Foundation and others, do not embrace my work – because there are natural cycles and they could be heading downward – putting billions of lives at risk from extreme weather and food shortages. Mitigation remedies were always hopelessly misdirected – but adaptation strategies will require a lot of sound thinking and cooperation, maybe even some better modelling.

Skeptically Yours,
Brian Hall

Monday, 7 March 2011

Carnival - German style ...






Watching the Carnival in Frankfurt yesterdayI was struck by the fact that young, old and in between throw everything into this wonderful bit of celebrating their culture, their history and their present. "Carnival Clubs" spend most of the year planning, building and preparing their entries for the parades which take place on the weekend before Lent, the biggest happening on "Rosenmontag" (Rose Monday) and are televised. Today we have watched the parades in Mainz, Cologne and Dusseldorf courtesy of the ZDF television station and enjoyed the fun of watching politicians, religious figures and others in the news get a bit of stick - and the crowds enjoying the efforts of assorted brass bands, "City Guards," dance troupes, gymnasts and clubs mixed with and supported by a variety of businesses as they threw a party to end all parties.


In Cologne alone 300 tons of sweets were thrown from the floats and collected by the scampering kids. Bunches of flowers, packs of sauages, bags of bread and the ever popular "Berliner" - a jam filled doughnut - were also thrown, sold and distributed. The crowds numbered in the hundreds of thousands and the parades were huge - in Mainz the parade route is 7.2 kilometres and the parade procession itself was 7 kilometres in length. In Cologne the procession was 6.5 kilometres on a route of about 7 and so it goes on.


The pictures here are from my mobile phone and taken yesterday in Frankfurt. In my mind these parades are what bind people to their culture, they give an identity and they link the young to the old as each generation brings something of its own to the fun. It has been huge fun all weekend...

Saturday, 5 March 2011

Home again ...

Well, the course is finished and the Monk is glad to be home again. It was good to be able to catch up with all his former colleagues and with his family, but it also flagged up just how setteled he now is in the Taunus.

On another note, he is concerned that a large number of hiis former students and friends are presently caught up in the rather bloody civil war in Libya, having learned from the news that the refinery they are based on has been attacked by Berber supporters of Gaddafi and apparently retaken by the opposition. With the total internet blackout, there is no way of knowing their situation either...

Tuesday, 1 March 2011

Working in the cold...

After a fashion, I should say. Yesterday we burned the four scenes our students will examine today and tomorrow, and I have to say that though it was a tiring day and a chilly one, we have some really interesting scenes ready for them now.

Ah well, my coffee cup is now empty, the class will be waiting soon, so time to post and go!