Wednesday, 21 November 2012

A Ceasefire? Or a cessation of firing?

According to the news the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is now in place. I have no doubt the Israelis will observe it, but I have severe doubts about the behaviour of some of the groups Hamas speaks for. In the past these "cease fires" have been driven by the need for Hamas or its fellow terrorist organisations, to find a new source of ammunition or to regroup and re-arm and I remain sceptical on this one.

I rather suspect it is driven by a shortage of missiles and the realisation that their attempt to blanket Israeli towns and cities with them has failed. Watching various news channels, including Al Jazeera, I noted a number of hits by Israeli weapons which were followed by even larger secondary explosions, suggesting that ammunition dumps had been located, targeted and destroyed. Now the only question remaining is how long it will take for a fresh supply of the missiles Hamas has been using to be delivered across the Sinai desert and through the tunnels ...

That, more than anything else, is what will determine how long the ceasfire holds I suspect. I hope and pray that I will be proved wrong.

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