Good and bad thinking ...

Came across the following on Climate etc., a blog run by Dr Judith Curry, a noted climate scientist.

Unfortunately, there is not simply good and bad thinking in the world, both easily recognized as such. There is also bad thinking that appears to be good and therefore wrongfully, sometimes disastrously, used as the basis of very important decisions. Very often this “bad thinking” is defended and “rationalized” in a highly sophisticated fashion. However flawed, it successfully counterfeits good thinking, and otherwise intelligent people are taken in. Such thinking is found in every dimension of human life and in every dimension it does harm; in every dimension it works against human well-being. 

While she is addressing some of the name calling and arguing in the climate science/Anthropomorphic Global Warming debate that black is white and vice versa, it struck me, reading her article, that this is what has gone wrong in so many aspects of our present society. In my view the entire Politically Correct agenda is a result of "Bad Thinking" in that it has taken perfectly reasonable and logical issues and created a monster out of them.  Morality is turned on it's head in this process and becomes a draconian beast, the ally of bullies and misogynists who spend all their time examining every statement and every action in others in an effort to find and " - ismist" intention.


This is what has spawned such oxymorons as "institutional racism, sexism, homophobia" and so many more. This is what spawns the sort of idiot who can take a light-hearted comment and turn it into a racist slur, or see a father taking a photograph of his child and turn it into an act of paedophilia.


How does it arise? I suspect it begins innocently enough, as something one can identify with as a "cause" to be supported. Gradually it grows as more and more misinformation is added or misdirection is received until someone, who probably has a tendency toward obsession anyway, becomes so convinced of the "justice" of their cause, they start a crusade. This is the sort of thing that begins with, for example, the perfectly reasonable desire of those who find themselves drawn to a same-sex relationship, to be able to enjoy that relationship openly and without censure. Then it becomes a campaign to demand that everyone must acknowledge that right and finally, as in Sparta, it must be made the "norm" in the eyes of the campaigner. In this drive to compel everyone to accept everything, all sense of balance and "reasonableness" is lost. If you disagree with someone's views, you risk being labeled fascist, if you think Islam isn't the same as Christianity, you are an Islamophobe. If you are uncomfortable with homosexuality, you are a homophobe. Normal, everyday behaviour is now regarded with suspicion by the advocates of PC ideology because it might mask some "-ism" they are against. Using an ordinary figure of speech can get you branded as a racist ...


Another example of how this kind of thinking can be used is to study the case of the fundamentalist in any religion. They will consider no argument around their belief. The reasoning is usually circular and closed. This is clearly manifest in both sides of the climate change debate. Neither side will actually 'hear' what the other side is saying - hence Dr Curry's "bad thinking" label.


But "bad thinking" seems to pervade almost every aspect of our lives at present. I have already mentioned the religious fundamentalist, but they are joined by the anti-religion faction who have arrived, by some rather interesting manipulations of facts, at the conclusion that all wars are started by religions and all sexual abuse is committed by Roman Catholic priests... Again, if the actual crime statistics are examined, less than 2% of all clergy commit any sort of offence and this accounts, across the world, for under 10% of the actual crimes of sexual abuse. What one must not do, is try to discuss this with anyone who is convinced of the mantra: religion = war; clergy = abusers.


I find myself asking what is it in some people that prevents them from critically examining their reasoning or their cause? Is it actually a form of mental illness? 


Maybe there's a doctorate and vast amount of research funding to be had in examining it!

The €uro debacle ...

Seems to be taking up a huge amount of everyone's time at present. Reading some of the UK reports you could be forgiven that the €uro experiment was designed by the Devil himself with the express purpose of impoverishing the member nations and depriving them of their "democratic rights." President Sarkozy and the Chancellor of the German Federation, Angela Merkel seem to be in the firing line over it as well. Primarily they are accused of "stripping the Greeks of the democratic rights" and of trying to recreate the Carolingian Empire.

I have to confess that I find the latter accusation amusing to say the least. Charlemagne (Karl der Grosse in German) was crowned Holy Roman Emperor and managed to bring peace to Europe after subduing all the Germanic, Slavonic and Gaelic tribes who invaded Europe after 410 AD. On his death his empire was divided between his sons and then, in the ensuing 1,000 years, fragmented further. The boundaries we recognise today in Europe are those created after 1945 and I doubt Charlemagne would recognise them - or the supposed "European Empire" the present crop of politicians are accused of creating.

As for the Greek plebiscite - or lack of - I fail to see what they could have voted for or against. Their nation is bankrupt. A large majority evade all forms of tax and the state budget hands out freely against loans from the IMF, EU, and various private financial institutions. Sarkozy and Merkel managed to stitch together a package of funding and reforms with the approval of a number of other €uro members who all stand to lose heavily if Greece does go under and take the €uro down and then, at the 11th hour the man who got Greece into this mess decides to hold a Referendum. On what? Accept or reject the bail out? You can be sure he wouldn't have got anything better by trying to renegotiate it. And if they rejected it? What then? Resurrect the Drachma? With what? Backed by what?

The truth is that Greece probably can't leave the €uro unless they wish to adopt the same tactic Mugabe used when the Zim$ crashed to the point of having so many noughts after the first number there weren't enough printing presses to keep up. What point would a Referendum serve then? Sure "the People" might have had a say in it, but since they voted for Papandreou in the first place, what does it prove? Then they didn't pay the taxes and embarked on social welfare handout programmes and the like that made this situation inevitable. Would it have solved anything?

The simple answer is, no.

The truth is that the €uro is in fact the victim of politics of the handout cultures in far too many of its constituent economies. One of the accusations hurled at Merkel and Sarkozy is that they are "depriving" the member nations of the "right" to set their own budgets and taxes, interest rates etc. But that isn't entirely true either. Germany and France are the principle power-houses in the European economy, with Holland, Sweden and Finland providing the bulk of the economic stability and productivity. Italy is a tale of two halves with the south largely soaking up the economy generated in the north, Spain and Portugal, alongside Greece are examples of Socialist misrule and abuse of economics and then there is Greece.

Merkel, Sarkozy and the other "Northern" nations powering the EU economy would be negligent if they allowed the rogue states like Greece to destroy their countries economies as well. And here lies a major part of the conundrum. If a plebiscite were held and the voters said "yes," the anti-lobby would scream that it had been rigged or the voters "mislead" or "bullied" and if it went their way and the nation's economy collapsed, they would scream that it was the fault of the "rich" who had "robbed" the Treasury. As Churchill once remarked, democracy is the worst of all systems of government - except for all the others. This is, perhaps, where we have taken "democracy" to be something the Ancient Greeks never envisaged. After all, their original system was about REMOVING politicians and banishing them from office!

Western economies are generally declining on the world stage. The rising economic powerhouses are India, China and Brazil and this century will, I think, see them gain centre stage in the leadership of the world, probably with a renewed, restored and economically stable Russia as a fourth. Those who rage about the "democratic rights" that have supposedly been denied the Greeks should consider this carefully. If the €uro is allowed to fail it will seriously damage both the US$ and the British Pound and quite possibly stall or even reverse their economic recovery from the 2008 Crash.

We may not like the €uro, we may even wish to see a reversion to the "old currencies" but I doubt it can happen at this point without causing serious economic chaos. The truth is that today a currency is worth only what a country produces in real terms of the "Balance of Trade." As a trading bloc, Europe has a strong Balance, as individual nations, some are strong others are so weak their currencies would not have even the value of the paper they are printed on. Which is better?

I know one thing, I have a drawer full of currencies from countries who tried to buck the market. I have some banknotes from one former European currency. I hold close to a million in notes. Value? About €2. Would I like to see this happen across the EU? No.

There are many things about the EU I do not like. I don't like the Council of Ministers having the power to appoint the Commission and the President. I want those posts elected. I don't like the way Brussels is running a socialising agenda. I want more freedom and less regulation. I don't like the manner in which the Brussels bureaucrats are able to run rings round national governments, or the way many national civil servants are quick to Gold Plate anything from Brussels which increases their power. I don't like the fact that the EU Parliament is an almost irrelevant institution. What is the point of electing the clowns who feed in it if they can't call the shots to Brussels and the Bureaucrats? But I don't want to see the €uro fail.

The damage it will do will plunge Western democracy into a real crisis, one I don't think we can recover from.

Time, like an ever rolling stream ...

A line from the old funeral and Remembrance Sunday hymn, Abide with me, sprang to mind this morning when I got a message telling me that the wife of the priest who prepared me for confirmation and mother of my first real girlfriend, had died on All Saints Day.

These last few years she has suffered from dementia and been very infirm as well, she was, after all, over 80 years of age. Mrs Moore as we kids knew her, was the epitome of a Vicar's wife. Always engaged in the work of the Parish, always supportive of her husband's ministry and always welcoming to their home. My thoughts are with Val and Penny, her daughters, and with their families at this time. She will be buried alongside her husband, the Rev Mervyn Moore, in Fernie, BC, Canada where the family now live.

It has been a long road for all of them. They came originally from Yorkshire, where Rev Moore had served at the great Cathedral Minster, then moved to South Africa, where he developed his ministry further. Finally, they followed Val and her husband to Canada where they enjoyed their retirement.

May they both rest in peace, and rise with all the saints in glory.

A new threat to the LFB Museum.

Below is the Press Release issued by the Friends of the museum who are trying to save it, yet again, from the politicians who have no appreciation of any heritage which isn't part of their current ideological "vision."

Friends of the London Fire Brigade Museum PRESS RELEASE
 The London Fire and Emergency Planning Authority, (LFEPA) is expected to propose closing the London Fire Brigade museum, in Winchester House, part of the brigade’s Southwark Training Centre.
 The LFEPA will meet on 24^th November to consider a recommendation to close the museum as part of its annual budget review.  This will save the cost of two staff, which we estimate to be £81,000 along with income from admissions and sales from a small shop.  To date this income has never been re-invested in the museum.
 The museum provides many outstanding services…
 ·      It is a fantastic educational resource, and will severely inhibit the LFB’s ability to communicate its fire safety message
·      It is home to nearly 20,000 exhibits, and a fantastic collection of archives including books, and historic service records
·      The museum allows family of former firefighters to conduct searches, at a time when there is a growing interest in genealogy and history.
·       The museum is  presently located in the grounds of the historic Grade II Listed Winchester House, once home to the founding father of modern-day firefighting techniques, Captain Sir Eyre Massey Shaw
 If the museum closes, it will deprive Londoner’s young and old of a valuable link to the capital’s heritage.
Crucially, the museum plays a part in contributing to the Department for Communities and Local Government’s fire safety Message.  See: http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/fire/Firekillsreport201011 The Friends of the London Fire Brigade MuseumIs a small independent body formed in 2008 and successfully campaigned to prevent a previous attempt to close it which was vetoed both by the Committee and led to the Mayor supporting it continuation.
 The meeting on 24 November is the means by which the Fire Authority formulates is budget prior to submitting it to the Mayor for his formal approval.
 Our aim is to keep what is an important part of London’s cultural heritage and especially on the eve of the cultural Olympiad, available to the people of London and the wider world.  This collection represents one of the best example’s of fire related memorabilia in the world and shows the key role the Fire Brigade has played in the development of our city.
 Follow us on http://www.petitionbuzz.com/petitions/lfbmuseum http://twitter.com/#!/FLFBM https://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=26317448196 http://flfbm.co.uk/ CONTACT: For tv, radio and newspaper interview, call:  Tony Sweeney 07876598199 Dave Rogers 07946403864

If you feel you can support and help us save the museum, please contact the two people listed in the release, sign up to the petition, or, perhaps better, contact the LFEPA and express your feelings, preferably by letter or e-mail.

Seven Billion and climbing ...

Ever wondered about the manner in which the population has grown in recent years? I know I have and it began when I did a demographic survey for my employer in the early 1980s. So, with the BBC having a neat little calculator, I thought I'd see what it said about the world population on the day I was born.

Turns out that I was somewhere around the 2,442,591,916th person to be born on this earth. In that year, the world population was just 2,300,000,000 (2.3 billion) which I assume means that deaths sort of balanced the births somewhere down the line. What is really interesting is the 1950 was the beginning of a runaway increase in the population - mainly in the "Developing" nations. The 1953 population hit 2.6 billion, in 1960 it had jumped to 3.1 billion and the year I finished school it hit 3.26 billion. By 1980 it was 4.4 billion and in 1990 5.3 billion and at the millennium it stood at 6.1 billion.

One country which interests me greatly and provides an excellent example of what I mean is South Africa. In 1987 the population was around 34 million, it now stands at 50,295,089 with 123 births, 85 deaths and 16 immigrants daily. The population is expanding at a rate of more than 1% per annum. The big question is, of course, can the country feed, water and employ all these people? In all honesty, no. And the same goes for many more countries around the globe.

What caused this massive explosion? According to one of the people I consulted back in the 1980s it was the availability of modern medicine which raised the life expectancy of all population groups and lowered the infant mortality figures. One small advance in medicine and it has caused a population explosion. Interesting stuff indeed.

But there is another small point to this which is perhaps going unnoticed by most of us. In 1900 Europe accounted for 21% of the world population. In 2000 it was just below 10% and in 2030 will be just 6% of the world population. Not only does this have a huge impact on our influence in the world, but it impacts directly on our economic power as well. Helpfully the site also gives a calculator for the population of your country. So a quick look tells me that the UK currently has 62,161,592 people with 85 births, 66 deaths and 23 immigrants every day ... Which tells me that there is a nett growth there and that, as many of the births are to immigrants, the population in Britain is undergoing a large growth and a profound change.

Definitely something to ponder carefully...

All Souls Day ...

Today is the feast of All Souls, the day that Christians remember and celebrate the lives of those who have "gone before" us from this life to the next. There are possibly many different understandings surrounding what, precisely, the "next life" is or is like. Early Christians tended to follow the Jewish understanding which is that "the soul" descends into a place of waiting from which it will be recalled to return to a new and perfect body in a restored earth. In the Christian understanding, this will be a perfect world in which there is no more birth or death and an absence of pain and suffering.

Of course, the early church expected this "renewal" to happen within their or the next generation's life span, so theologians have wrestled with the question ever since. Interestingly, the Christian teaching remains that, ultimately, in God's time, all will be resurrected in flesh and blood form to populate the new earth and there will be a restoration of Eden with no further death or suffering. Various alternative visions are also taught, many believing that the resurrection is a spiritual one rather than a physical - but now we roam into the realms of "Dualism" which is pre-Christian and was, in fact, refined by Aristotle. The big question at this point is, "What precisely is the 'soul'?" To that we might add - "What is it?"

In fact, at this point, no one really has a definitive answer. But, having attended a number of deaths and watched, helplessly as someone makes that transition from living to dead, I can say that there is a very subtle something that changes at the moment of "death." What is more it is something far more subtle than the absence of breathing, heart beat or any other "vital" sign. Something is definitely "absent" once that border is crossed, something intangible to our crude senses. It is one of the reasons I continue to hold to my faith.

All Souls Day is when we remember all those who have had an impact or an influence on our lives and are no longer among us in physical form. So today I will be keeping in my prayers the following -

Neville Gray Cox
Grace Eleanor Frances Cox
Hector Mary Heron
Henry Nelson Heron
Roland Cox
Louise Cox
Mabel Ferson
Rheinhard Löffler
Diana Matlock
Ron Rayner
Doug Schwikkardt
Gil Wright
Ashley Batten
Mervyn Moore
Dennis Knighton

May they rest in Peace and rise with the saints in Glory.

All Saints

Today is the Feast of All Saints, all those who, living and departed, worship, praise and live out the Gospel as far as they are able. It has nothing to do with devils, witches, warlocks, vampires, ghoulies, ghosties or long-leggedy beasties. It is a celebration of faith and the faithful.

In recent years it has become fashionable to claim that it was originally a pagan festival and that the Church somehow "stole" it. Frankly that is nonsense. It is not a part of the Roman Saturnalia, nor is it Lughnasad in a new guise. It actually falls between these, the modern Harvest Festival is more closely linked to Lughnasad, the Druidic Harvest Feast.

Today is for remembering and celebrating the lives of all those who, through their faith, have kept the gospel and the Church alive.