The Monk finds he has a lot on his plate at the moment. Firstly, the good news, is that his book, A Baltic Affair, seems to have found a steady market. It is selling well in the US and even in the UK. It isn't in the 'Best Seller' lists yet, and it cvertainly hasn't recovered the cost of publication, but it is building up a nice head of steam.
The publisher, IndieGo Publishing in the US, is very pleased with it, and has taken on the publishing of the next in the Harry Heron series of adventures, The Outer Edge. The Monk is delighted, to say the least, but, now comes the difficult bit - the publisher's edits. Fortunately, the editor, Janet Angelo, is, like the Monk, a scifi fan - so they see eye to eye on almost everything she suggests to improve the reader experience, add descriptions, or modify the narrative. It's a rewarding experience and the Monk wishes his earlier books had received this kind of polish. The Outer Edge is likely to be the best yet of these stories, so watch this space for news of publication.
Now, back to the grindstone, there are deadlines to meet and a lecture to be delivered on Thursday in the UK.
Tuesday, 12 November 2013
Monday, 11 November 2013
Remembrance Day
Yesterday was Remembrance Sunday, and Britain came, briefly, to a standstill as all across the country old soldiers, sailors and airmen, Boy Scouts, Guides, Sea Cadets, Army Cadets, Air Cadets and members of the public gathered at War Memorials and the Cenotaph in London other major cities, to remember the dead of two World Wars and all the many 'little' wars since. As usual there were those who tried to make a 'political' issue of it, and there was, as ever, the stupid attempt by the anti-war lobbyists to highjack it with their inane 'white' poppy.
Despite this, it was a solemn and well conducted ceremony in the vast majority of places. What the small minority forget in their strident campaigns against 'nationalism' and 'jingoism' and another other '-ism' they can attach to it, is that it is none of those things. It is a time set aside to remember those whose sacrifice gave us the freedom to do the stupid things like hand out white poppies, to try to disrupt parades, or to make inane public posturing by communist Student Union members de rigeur.
It is interesting that the date has great significance in most of Europe, since the 11th November is the Feast Day of Martin of Tours, the fourth century Roman soldier who converted to Christianity around 300AD risking his life and freedom in the process. Famously he shared his cloak with a beggar he encountered in freezing weather, tearing the garment in half to do so. Later he dreamed that he encountered Christ, with Jesus wearing the other half of his cloak. He became the Bishop of Tours sometime after 314AD after defeating the Arianists in a long running debate and series of Synods. It is worth noting that the leading Arianist at that time was none other than the then Bishop of Rome, who changed sides under Martin's erudite arguments. Had Martin not succeeded Christianity in the West would probably now resemble something akin to the Shia version of Islam.
The irony is that Martin of Tours is the Patron Saint of soldiers, sailors and airmen, and the Armistice was signed on his feast day - which many saw as an auspicious omen. So, while the rest of Europe marks St Martin's Day, we British mark the Armistice.
This year, in Germany, there has been an additional element, since two days earlier, on the 9th November, there were ceremonies, church services and civic functions to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the infamous "Kristallnacht" which saw 1,200 Jews murdered and the first 30,000 'deportations' under the Nazis. The 9th and 10th of November are marked annually by small remembrance services, but this years have been of particular note. It is difficult to understand how a minority - and the 'real' Nazis always were a minority - could cow an entire population into accepting such an act of blatant savagery, with murders being committed publicly and the murderers going unpunished. That is until you realise that the Brown-shirted thugs were well organised, armed and given a licence to kill, beat or abuse anyone who attempted to stop them; that they had appointed their own people in charge of Police, Fire Brigade and Ambulance services, and that these services were under orders to stand aside. The local Fire Brigade was ordered to stand by while the Synagogue in Wiesbaden, a particularly magnificent one, burned. Their orders were to 'prevent the fire from spreading' - no attempt was to be made to save the synagogue.
Today a huge memorial stands were it was, recording some 20,000 names of the Jews deported and exterminated in the Death Camps. Ironically, it stands in Sankt-Martinstrasse.
Of growing concern to the German people is the fact that many Middle Eastern immigrants - largely the second generation of immigrants - are now breeding a new wave of anti-semitism. There are some one million Jews in Germany today, and five million Muslims. A recent study for the BBC rather smugly declared that 'antisemitism is on the rise in Germany' and announced that Britain is the least anti-semitic state in Europe. They failed to mention there are entire cities in the Uk where Jews do not go, or that almost all the assaults on Jews in Germany are committed by immigrants and the small number of radical 'converts' to Islam - something universally condemned by the ordinary Germans.
So this season is one for remembering. It begins with the feasts of All Hallows and All Souls (the first having an Octave which means the last day of the feast of All Saints ends on the 9th November) and now we have the additional 'remembrances' of the events of the 9th and 10th November in 1938, plus the signing of the Armistice on the 11th in 1918.
I have, as is my habit, marked the remembrance day with prayers for the souls of the members of my family who died and those who survived the two world wars, and those of my school friends who also fought in the proxy wars in Africa.
Despite this, it was a solemn and well conducted ceremony in the vast majority of places. What the small minority forget in their strident campaigns against 'nationalism' and 'jingoism' and another other '-ism' they can attach to it, is that it is none of those things. It is a time set aside to remember those whose sacrifice gave us the freedom to do the stupid things like hand out white poppies, to try to disrupt parades, or to make inane public posturing by communist Student Union members de rigeur.
It is interesting that the date has great significance in most of Europe, since the 11th November is the Feast Day of Martin of Tours, the fourth century Roman soldier who converted to Christianity around 300AD risking his life and freedom in the process. Famously he shared his cloak with a beggar he encountered in freezing weather, tearing the garment in half to do so. Later he dreamed that he encountered Christ, with Jesus wearing the other half of his cloak. He became the Bishop of Tours sometime after 314AD after defeating the Arianists in a long running debate and series of Synods. It is worth noting that the leading Arianist at that time was none other than the then Bishop of Rome, who changed sides under Martin's erudite arguments. Had Martin not succeeded Christianity in the West would probably now resemble something akin to the Shia version of Islam.
The irony is that Martin of Tours is the Patron Saint of soldiers, sailors and airmen, and the Armistice was signed on his feast day - which many saw as an auspicious omen. So, while the rest of Europe marks St Martin's Day, we British mark the Armistice.
This year, in Germany, there has been an additional element, since two days earlier, on the 9th November, there were ceremonies, church services and civic functions to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the infamous "Kristallnacht" which saw 1,200 Jews murdered and the first 30,000 'deportations' under the Nazis. The 9th and 10th of November are marked annually by small remembrance services, but this years have been of particular note. It is difficult to understand how a minority - and the 'real' Nazis always were a minority - could cow an entire population into accepting such an act of blatant savagery, with murders being committed publicly and the murderers going unpunished. That is until you realise that the Brown-shirted thugs were well organised, armed and given a licence to kill, beat or abuse anyone who attempted to stop them; that they had appointed their own people in charge of Police, Fire Brigade and Ambulance services, and that these services were under orders to stand aside. The local Fire Brigade was ordered to stand by while the Synagogue in Wiesbaden, a particularly magnificent one, burned. Their orders were to 'prevent the fire from spreading' - no attempt was to be made to save the synagogue.
Today a huge memorial stands were it was, recording some 20,000 names of the Jews deported and exterminated in the Death Camps. Ironically, it stands in Sankt-Martinstrasse.
Of growing concern to the German people is the fact that many Middle Eastern immigrants - largely the second generation of immigrants - are now breeding a new wave of anti-semitism. There are some one million Jews in Germany today, and five million Muslims. A recent study for the BBC rather smugly declared that 'antisemitism is on the rise in Germany' and announced that Britain is the least anti-semitic state in Europe. They failed to mention there are entire cities in the Uk where Jews do not go, or that almost all the assaults on Jews in Germany are committed by immigrants and the small number of radical 'converts' to Islam - something universally condemned by the ordinary Germans.
So this season is one for remembering. It begins with the feasts of All Hallows and All Souls (the first having an Octave which means the last day of the feast of All Saints ends on the 9th November) and now we have the additional 'remembrances' of the events of the 9th and 10th November in 1938, plus the signing of the Armistice on the 11th in 1918.
I have, as is my habit, marked the remembrance day with prayers for the souls of the members of my family who died and those who survived the two world wars, and those of my school friends who also fought in the proxy wars in Africa.
They shall not grow old
As we that are left grow old,
Age shall not weary them,
Nor the years condemn.
At the going down of the sun,
And in the morning.
We will remember them.
We remember and honour the dead, yet we seem to forget the survivors who lived with traumatic mental scars. Those who survived the horror and the slaughter, and who really did set out to build a world we, their children, could enjoy in freedom. We should remember them as well, perhaps even remind our nihilistic student bodies who babble of 'revolutions' and our politicians who have stolen almost every benefit our fathers and grandfathers fought to obtain or preserve.
Friday, 8 November 2013
Congratulations
Are definitely due to the Monk's eldest daughter, who has successfully achieved a Bachelor of Science (Hons) Management with Trusts and Estates. She has worked hard for this, holding down a full time and demanding job and studying part-time.
Studying for a degree is never a walk in the park, even as a full-time student. Doing it while dealing with a full-time job and all the other little things in life adds a few complications and some challenges. In my view it makes the achievement all the more noteworthy.
Congratulations VC, a celebration is definitely now in order.
Studying for a degree is never a walk in the park, even as a full-time student. Doing it while dealing with a full-time job and all the other little things in life adds a few complications and some challenges. In my view it makes the achievement all the more noteworthy.
Congratulations VC, a celebration is definitely now in order.
Wednesday, 6 November 2013
What does 'Aid' really do for the 'poor'?
The subject of 'Aid' is always a touchy one. There are many arguments for richer nations supporting projects in poor or developing nations, the chief being that, in so doing, we foster good relations and reduce the forces of envy which translate into terrorism and violence against the 'haves' in the West. One the other hand, there is overwhelming evidence to suggest that very little benefit is actually produced for the providers of 'Aid' or for those it is supposed to help. I was reminded rather strongly of this last night as I watched the launch, by India, of a Mars probe.
India is, currently, in receipts of a few hundreds of millions of pounds of Aid money from the UK government. This is supposedly supporting a range of programmes targeting social and poverty relief issues, and it is ceasing next year. Allegedly. Now here is one of the things that bothers me about the handouts - which have been going on since 1947 - and it is this: India has one of the worlds largest 'poverty' problems in the world. It has a huge number of its reported 1 billion inhabitants living in basic conditions, and subsisting on minimal wages, but it is now the possessor of one of the largest Naval Fleets in that region, equipped with nuclear capable submarines, aircraft carriers, and the latest ship borne aircraft and missiles. It is a nuclear power, and it boasts a space programme - but the UK, which is busy slashing its udgets, reducing its Navy to a coastal defence force, and its other armed forces to little more than token units, is giving India 'Aid'.
Nor is this the only example. Pakistan has been a net beneficiary of Aid for all of its existence, yet its a country described as 'failing'. Corruption is rife, poverty is the biggest 'growth industry' and it provides more radical Islamists to wage terror campaigns than Iran which is supposed to be the seat of Islamic fundamentalism. Zimbabwe is another. Billions in Aid went in for years, but the currency collapsed, the people are starving, the infrastructure is collapsing and the only beneficiaries seem to be Mugabe and his thuggish cronies whose Swiss Bank accounts are stuffed with the proceeds. The same seems to be happening in South Africa, where people who, prior to 1994, were drawing benefits in the UK, or street traders, car salesmen and shopkeepers in the Apartheid years are now billionaires while the countries economy struggles, corruption is rampant, poverty increases and the infrastructure can't be maintained. Ther list goes on and on, and the countries pouring this 'Aid' money into these bottomless pits are making cuts to their own budgets to pay for it.
The UK has cut its Defence Budget to ridiculous levels, it can't afford (we are constantly told) to pay pensioners, and threatens to reduce this 'benefit' (which it is not - we all pay for it through our working lives. We've earned it and had the Whitehall parasites invested even a portion of what they've collected they'd be rolling in money) for those now in work - and paying into the funds Whitehall continues to squander. The UK has no space programme, allegedly because 'there is no benefit to be gained from it', but in reality, because they waste the money on other things. But we are funding India's albeit indirectly. The cuts to Defence are now coming home to bite, with the possibility, on the eve of the Scottish Independence Referendum, of the Govan and Scotstoun shipyards, dependent on ship orders for the RN, closing. Nor is Britain alone, these questions are being asked in Germany and several other countries, but it is one the politicians everywhere don't want to answer.
The truth is that 'Aid', well intentioned as it is, allows the recipient politicians to divert funds they would and should have spent on whatever the 'Aid' is targeting, to other projects. In many recipient countries, the corruption is so entrenched, that the Aid might as well be paid directly to the bank accounts (Swiss) of the families of the politicians who have a nice line of contractors who are the sole winners of any contract going. Usually companies run by wives, sons, cousins or other relatives, and the 'product' delivered is often a joke, and not what it was supposed to be. An example that would be hilarious if it wasn't so stupid, was a contract awarded in South Africa to a relative of a Minister to proivde proper toilets in all the 'informal' townships. What the contractor didn't do, was plumb any of them into a sewer, a water supply or anything else. He built concrete slabs, placed a 'throne' on it and moved on. Thousands of them, in every township. No enclosure, no plumbing, no sewerage removal. Mega-millions into bank. Easy.
When one considers the cost of India's Space Programme, the UK's Aid package is quite small beer, but, considering that we didn't even spend a tenth of the amount of Aid we give India, and less than a fraction of a percent of what we hand out in Aid on our joint effort through the European Space Agency, one does have to ask the question; why? Is there any benefit to the UK from this largesse? Is there any benefit to those on the receiving end (excluding of course the corrupt politicians)? From where I stand, the answer is no. We have almost two million unemployed, we have sold off most of our heavy industries (ironically our steel plants and our prestige car manufactuers to Indian owners) and we can't pay our own bills - but we hand out huge amounts that, spent at home, could at least support a great deal of redevelopment in areas that desperately need it.
We can't pay pensioners, we have a crippling unemployment 'benefit' burden, we are slashing government services and selling them off to foreign operators, we have no Space Programme, our Armed Forces are shrinking to the point of non-existence, but we can hand out billions in 'Aid'? There's something very wrong with that picture, but perhaps those responsible are standiong to close to the trees to see it.
India is, currently, in receipts of a few hundreds of millions of pounds of Aid money from the UK government. This is supposedly supporting a range of programmes targeting social and poverty relief issues, and it is ceasing next year. Allegedly. Now here is one of the things that bothers me about the handouts - which have been going on since 1947 - and it is this: India has one of the worlds largest 'poverty' problems in the world. It has a huge number of its reported 1 billion inhabitants living in basic conditions, and subsisting on minimal wages, but it is now the possessor of one of the largest Naval Fleets in that region, equipped with nuclear capable submarines, aircraft carriers, and the latest ship borne aircraft and missiles. It is a nuclear power, and it boasts a space programme - but the UK, which is busy slashing its udgets, reducing its Navy to a coastal defence force, and its other armed forces to little more than token units, is giving India 'Aid'.
Nor is this the only example. Pakistan has been a net beneficiary of Aid for all of its existence, yet its a country described as 'failing'. Corruption is rife, poverty is the biggest 'growth industry' and it provides more radical Islamists to wage terror campaigns than Iran which is supposed to be the seat of Islamic fundamentalism. Zimbabwe is another. Billions in Aid went in for years, but the currency collapsed, the people are starving, the infrastructure is collapsing and the only beneficiaries seem to be Mugabe and his thuggish cronies whose Swiss Bank accounts are stuffed with the proceeds. The same seems to be happening in South Africa, where people who, prior to 1994, were drawing benefits in the UK, or street traders, car salesmen and shopkeepers in the Apartheid years are now billionaires while the countries economy struggles, corruption is rampant, poverty increases and the infrastructure can't be maintained. Ther list goes on and on, and the countries pouring this 'Aid' money into these bottomless pits are making cuts to their own budgets to pay for it.
The UK has cut its Defence Budget to ridiculous levels, it can't afford (we are constantly told) to pay pensioners, and threatens to reduce this 'benefit' (which it is not - we all pay for it through our working lives. We've earned it and had the Whitehall parasites invested even a portion of what they've collected they'd be rolling in money) for those now in work - and paying into the funds Whitehall continues to squander. The UK has no space programme, allegedly because 'there is no benefit to be gained from it', but in reality, because they waste the money on other things. But we are funding India's albeit indirectly. The cuts to Defence are now coming home to bite, with the possibility, on the eve of the Scottish Independence Referendum, of the Govan and Scotstoun shipyards, dependent on ship orders for the RN, closing. Nor is Britain alone, these questions are being asked in Germany and several other countries, but it is one the politicians everywhere don't want to answer.
The truth is that 'Aid', well intentioned as it is, allows the recipient politicians to divert funds they would and should have spent on whatever the 'Aid' is targeting, to other projects. In many recipient countries, the corruption is so entrenched, that the Aid might as well be paid directly to the bank accounts (Swiss) of the families of the politicians who have a nice line of contractors who are the sole winners of any contract going. Usually companies run by wives, sons, cousins or other relatives, and the 'product' delivered is often a joke, and not what it was supposed to be. An example that would be hilarious if it wasn't so stupid, was a contract awarded in South Africa to a relative of a Minister to proivde proper toilets in all the 'informal' townships. What the contractor didn't do, was plumb any of them into a sewer, a water supply or anything else. He built concrete slabs, placed a 'throne' on it and moved on. Thousands of them, in every township. No enclosure, no plumbing, no sewerage removal. Mega-millions into bank. Easy.
When one considers the cost of India's Space Programme, the UK's Aid package is quite small beer, but, considering that we didn't even spend a tenth of the amount of Aid we give India, and less than a fraction of a percent of what we hand out in Aid on our joint effort through the European Space Agency, one does have to ask the question; why? Is there any benefit to the UK from this largesse? Is there any benefit to those on the receiving end (excluding of course the corrupt politicians)? From where I stand, the answer is no. We have almost two million unemployed, we have sold off most of our heavy industries (ironically our steel plants and our prestige car manufactuers to Indian owners) and we can't pay our own bills - but we hand out huge amounts that, spent at home, could at least support a great deal of redevelopment in areas that desperately need it.
We can't pay pensioners, we have a crippling unemployment 'benefit' burden, we are slashing government services and selling them off to foreign operators, we have no Space Programme, our Armed Forces are shrinking to the point of non-existence, but we can hand out billions in 'Aid'? There's something very wrong with that picture, but perhaps those responsible are standiong to close to the trees to see it.
Monday, 4 November 2013
Ten Years of Blogging
Today is the tenth anniversary of my starting a blog. I can scarcely believe it has been this long, and it has certainly gone through a number of changes, and seen many more, along the way. I think the most appropriate way to mark this milestone is to pay tribute to those who have shared the journey, who read my ramblings and occasionally leave comments and suggestions for posts. Some have even joined me in posting their thoughts here.
So I have to say thanks to Ozguru, also known as Gil, who first got me blogging on his then website, back in 2001. Sadly I have been unable to retrieve those early posts., so now count as my first, this one. When that website became too big for his management (and the demands of family and normal day job) we migrated to PixyMisa's MuNu site. The only problem being that, as Ozguru set it all up, I had difficulty getting into the settings to sort out one or two problems, and he didn't have the time to. So, eventually, and rather sadly, I migrated to the present host, Blogger.
Sadly, I've had to record the passing of a few friends, and seen the closure of several blogs as well. Church Mouse edited many of my posts and introduced me to a range of interesting characters and bloogers. She regularly fed me items of interest to blog about as well. Sadly, she died of cancer a little over four years ago, gone, but certainly not forgotten. I have been joined on the blog by Mausi, VC, formerly The Postulant and now Josephus all of whom have, from time to time, posted and contributed and who still contribute with suggestions and ideas.
I've ranted about politics and politicians, pondered some of the deeper mysteries of life, theology and history. I've celebrated some of my successes and shared some of my failures. It often surprised me that anyone read my thoughts, but it also encouraged me to broaden my writing and get some of it published. That has been an adventure all of its own.
So here it is, my tenth anniversary Blog Post. I can only wonder what the next ten years will bring with them.
So I have to say thanks to Ozguru, also known as Gil, who first got me blogging on his then website, back in 2001. Sadly I have been unable to retrieve those early posts., so now count as my first, this one. When that website became too big for his management (and the demands of family and normal day job) we migrated to PixyMisa's MuNu site. The only problem being that, as Ozguru set it all up, I had difficulty getting into the settings to sort out one or two problems, and he didn't have the time to. So, eventually, and rather sadly, I migrated to the present host, Blogger.
Sadly, I've had to record the passing of a few friends, and seen the closure of several blogs as well. Church Mouse edited many of my posts and introduced me to a range of interesting characters and bloogers. She regularly fed me items of interest to blog about as well. Sadly, she died of cancer a little over four years ago, gone, but certainly not forgotten. I have been joined on the blog by Mausi, VC, formerly The Postulant and now Josephus all of whom have, from time to time, posted and contributed and who still contribute with suggestions and ideas.
I've ranted about politics and politicians, pondered some of the deeper mysteries of life, theology and history. I've celebrated some of my successes and shared some of my failures. It often surprised me that anyone read my thoughts, but it also encouraged me to broaden my writing and get some of it published. That has been an adventure all of its own.
So here it is, my tenth anniversary Blog Post. I can only wonder what the next ten years will bring with them.
Saturday, 2 November 2013
The Economics of 'Growth'
I am not a statistician, but I have some experience in using 'statistics' to make a point on occassion, or to persuade an audience that 'something' is happening or must be done. I have sufficient knowledge of the manner in which the data is is collected, how it is processed and sometimes manipulated, to be very suspicious when they are used by politicians, civil servants and certain 'scientists'. The majority of these folk are, like me, broadly 'illiterate' with regard to the significance of a whole range of things the raw 'numbers' appear to indicate, and completely illiterate when it comes to understanding the very complex mathematical 'models' used to work out what the data means.
Thus, when the Treasury (or a politician) talks about "economic growth" I take it with a large dose of salt. Why? Well, I have several reasons. First of all, I am one of those awkward people like Thomas the Twin (Thomas Didymus or Doubting Thomas). I tend to believe what I can see, feel, measure physically (THAT may surprise a few folk) and things like statistics tend to show only a small portion of the bigger picture. Secondly, in my lifetime, world population has gone from some 2 billion to 7 billion, and the world is creaking ecologically as a result. We are running out of all manner of things (I don't think hydrocarbon fuel is one of them - we keep finding more untapped 'reserves), but water and food certainly are. So is space for housing.
Yet all economists, and all national economies are built around the supposition that populations, wealth acquisition, commercial and industrial expansion, will continue to grow. The whole kettle of fish is built on the assumption that we will continue to buy and discard ever increasing quantities of 'consumer' goods. But, as far as I can see, this bubble is alreay almost at bursting point. Populations in most developed countries are either static, or declining if one removes the mass migrations coming in from less developed countries. The basket of 'goodies' that is used by the Treasury to measure 'growth' in the economy of any nation is full of some pretty ephemeral items. Like salaries and wages, like orders being filled, unemployment numbers, and new registrations of businesses. Inflation is adjusted for in these measurements, but everyone massages that figure to the point of worthlessness as the truth might scare away investors, or provoke revolution.
We hear of 'new' industries replacing old ones, which is true, but these new industries don't employ the vast numbers needed to address unemployment. Often they have the reverse effect. Unemployment in many countriues is also a seasonal thing. In Europe quite a number of the 'pavement cafe' operators shed staff (some even close completely) in the winter, and reopen in the Spring/Summer. They and their staff are 'unemployed' during the winter months, which slews these figures. If the banks have a 'good' year, that boosts the 'balance of trade' and so we see 'growth' - but it seldom feeds down to the rest of us.
Another major reason I doubt the 'growth' economics model can be sustained is that I don't think populations can continue to expand. In 1945, Britain had a population of some 20 million. It is now 60 million and growing, yet, even as it grows, it isn't growth due to births - it is boosted by migration and large migrant families. Unemployment keeps increasing, and, because we have a socialist system of 'benefits' so does the costz of running it. Ironically, as the population grows, the actual contributions to pensions, social benefits and so on from tax on the employed is in danger of falling off. Thus, our governments are increasingly compelled to engage in some dubious economic tactics to cover their spending plans. They borrow money on an eye watering scale, always on the promise that 'growth' will enable then to repay it. They increase taxes, adjust some of the 'hidden' taxation to increase its impact and encourage everyopne to spend, spend, spend - so the economy can 'grow'.
However, demographically, there are signs the world population is not going to continue its upward growth. China is seeing the start of a downturn, largely because a preference for male children means they now have an almost 2 to 1 male to female population of under 30s. India is also starting to show similar signs. Germany's population was found recently to be 1,8 million less than was estimated, and similar patterns are emerging elsewhere. So, if populations are not 'growing' naturally, how can we sustain 'economic growth' and continue to buy today and pay with tomorrow's 'growth'?
I suggest that we need, urgently, to find a new economic model. One which is sustainable, fair and does not involve stepping back to subsistence living for our populations while those who have done well out of the economics of 'growth' and literally robbed the bank, bask in luxury.
Thus, when the Treasury (or a politician) talks about "economic growth" I take it with a large dose of salt. Why? Well, I have several reasons. First of all, I am one of those awkward people like Thomas the Twin (Thomas Didymus or Doubting Thomas). I tend to believe what I can see, feel, measure physically (THAT may surprise a few folk) and things like statistics tend to show only a small portion of the bigger picture. Secondly, in my lifetime, world population has gone from some 2 billion to 7 billion, and the world is creaking ecologically as a result. We are running out of all manner of things (I don't think hydrocarbon fuel is one of them - we keep finding more untapped 'reserves), but water and food certainly are. So is space for housing.
Yet all economists, and all national economies are built around the supposition that populations, wealth acquisition, commercial and industrial expansion, will continue to grow. The whole kettle of fish is built on the assumption that we will continue to buy and discard ever increasing quantities of 'consumer' goods. But, as far as I can see, this bubble is alreay almost at bursting point. Populations in most developed countries are either static, or declining if one removes the mass migrations coming in from less developed countries. The basket of 'goodies' that is used by the Treasury to measure 'growth' in the economy of any nation is full of some pretty ephemeral items. Like salaries and wages, like orders being filled, unemployment numbers, and new registrations of businesses. Inflation is adjusted for in these measurements, but everyone massages that figure to the point of worthlessness as the truth might scare away investors, or provoke revolution.
We hear of 'new' industries replacing old ones, which is true, but these new industries don't employ the vast numbers needed to address unemployment. Often they have the reverse effect. Unemployment in many countriues is also a seasonal thing. In Europe quite a number of the 'pavement cafe' operators shed staff (some even close completely) in the winter, and reopen in the Spring/Summer. They and their staff are 'unemployed' during the winter months, which slews these figures. If the banks have a 'good' year, that boosts the 'balance of trade' and so we see 'growth' - but it seldom feeds down to the rest of us.
Another major reason I doubt the 'growth' economics model can be sustained is that I don't think populations can continue to expand. In 1945, Britain had a population of some 20 million. It is now 60 million and growing, yet, even as it grows, it isn't growth due to births - it is boosted by migration and large migrant families. Unemployment keeps increasing, and, because we have a socialist system of 'benefits' so does the costz of running it. Ironically, as the population grows, the actual contributions to pensions, social benefits and so on from tax on the employed is in danger of falling off. Thus, our governments are increasingly compelled to engage in some dubious economic tactics to cover their spending plans. They borrow money on an eye watering scale, always on the promise that 'growth' will enable then to repay it. They increase taxes, adjust some of the 'hidden' taxation to increase its impact and encourage everyopne to spend, spend, spend - so the economy can 'grow'.
However, demographically, there are signs the world population is not going to continue its upward growth. China is seeing the start of a downturn, largely because a preference for male children means they now have an almost 2 to 1 male to female population of under 30s. India is also starting to show similar signs. Germany's population was found recently to be 1,8 million less than was estimated, and similar patterns are emerging elsewhere. So, if populations are not 'growing' naturally, how can we sustain 'economic growth' and continue to buy today and pay with tomorrow's 'growth'?
I suggest that we need, urgently, to find a new economic model. One which is sustainable, fair and does not involve stepping back to subsistence living for our populations while those who have done well out of the economics of 'growth' and literally robbed the bank, bask in luxury.
Wednesday, 30 October 2013
All Hallows
With Halloween or All Hallow's Eve almost upon us again, I note with resignation that yet again we have trolls on almost all the social media trying to claim that Christianity is/has "stolen" Samhain. I have today even seen something written by someone claiming it is an "ancient Wiccan" festival. Obviously she is unaware that the whole "Wicca" thing was an invention of Alistair Crowley and the "Golden Dawn" Order of the late 19th and early 20th Century. Actually, even they would be surprised by the claims now accruing to the movement which was actually formed in the 1930s and further developed in the 1950s by an unlikely gentleman who would, today, probably be involved in the investigation currently underway in the UK.
I read some of this with a yawn, simply because it isn't new, it's been known for centuries. Christianity even acknowledges that their calendar was organised to make use of existing celebrations and feasts, just giving them a "Christian" spin and purpose. After all, if people are already marking a season as special, why introduce a whole new calendar? It doesn't make sense to do so and will only alienate (which is what these neo-pagans seem to be trying to do) everyone. It isn't something unique to Christianity either. The Egyptians did it, adopting new gods and feasts each time they were conquered or conquered someone else. So did the Babylonians, the Greeks, Persians and the Romans. So what? If you want to hold a feast of Saturnalia at Christmas time, fine. Go ahead, but don't complain that Christmas is "ruining" your marking of the Saturnalia or demand that everyone send you a 'Happy Saturnalia' card.
Samhain was, in Celtic lore (and can we please stop thinking the only "Celts" are the Welsh, Scots, Cornish and Irish? Just about every people west of a line from Gdansk on the Baltic to the Adriatic are Celtic in origin. The name was wrongly applied by someone in the 18th Century to the Scots, Welsh and Irish. The Irish are actually Gael, and the Western Scots and Northern Irish, Pict), a time to commemorate the dead. It was believed that the realms of the dead and the living met at this season as the winter began in earnest. This has echoes in other cultures and faiths as well. It made sense to the early Christians to keep it as a memorial celebration of all the "Saints" and the day following, all those who 'wait in death for the coming of the Lord.' Like Samhain, it is a two day feast, All Saints on the 1st and All Souls on the 2nd. Somehow the fact that the feast starts at Sunset on the 31st (The monastic church "day" follows the Jewish - it starts at sunset and finishes at the following sunset) and ends on the 2nd November.
To claim it is "exactly" Samhain is also misleading since the Gregorian (and the preceding Julian) calendars differ slightly from the lunar calendar used by the non-Roman world.
I will be keeping the feast in the Christian manner. Remembering the lives of all the Saints who kept the faith alive through persecution, political manipulation and social upheaval. I will also be keeping the second part of the feast with a quiet remembrance of all those who have gone before me into rest, but who made me who and what I have become.
I read some of this with a yawn, simply because it isn't new, it's been known for centuries. Christianity even acknowledges that their calendar was organised to make use of existing celebrations and feasts, just giving them a "Christian" spin and purpose. After all, if people are already marking a season as special, why introduce a whole new calendar? It doesn't make sense to do so and will only alienate (which is what these neo-pagans seem to be trying to do) everyone. It isn't something unique to Christianity either. The Egyptians did it, adopting new gods and feasts each time they were conquered or conquered someone else. So did the Babylonians, the Greeks, Persians and the Romans. So what? If you want to hold a feast of Saturnalia at Christmas time, fine. Go ahead, but don't complain that Christmas is "ruining" your marking of the Saturnalia or demand that everyone send you a 'Happy Saturnalia' card.
Samhain was, in Celtic lore (and can we please stop thinking the only "Celts" are the Welsh, Scots, Cornish and Irish? Just about every people west of a line from Gdansk on the Baltic to the Adriatic are Celtic in origin. The name was wrongly applied by someone in the 18th Century to the Scots, Welsh and Irish. The Irish are actually Gael, and the Western Scots and Northern Irish, Pict), a time to commemorate the dead. It was believed that the realms of the dead and the living met at this season as the winter began in earnest. This has echoes in other cultures and faiths as well. It made sense to the early Christians to keep it as a memorial celebration of all the "Saints" and the day following, all those who 'wait in death for the coming of the Lord.' Like Samhain, it is a two day feast, All Saints on the 1st and All Souls on the 2nd. Somehow the fact that the feast starts at Sunset on the 31st (The monastic church "day" follows the Jewish - it starts at sunset and finishes at the following sunset) and ends on the 2nd November.
To claim it is "exactly" Samhain is also misleading since the Gregorian (and the preceding Julian) calendars differ slightly from the lunar calendar used by the non-Roman world.
I will be keeping the feast in the Christian manner. Remembering the lives of all the Saints who kept the faith alive through persecution, political manipulation and social upheaval. I will also be keeping the second part of the feast with a quiet remembrance of all those who have gone before me into rest, but who made me who and what I have become.
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