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Monday, 27 June 2011

Fate of the €uro?

The Greek economy is a major cause for concern. If it collapses completely, the €uro would be torn apart - or so say the experts. It is, I note with some sadness, mainly the UK anti-European minority who want to see this happen. What, I think, they fail to recognise, is that if the €uro collapses, the British Pound will be hit as well.

Why? Quite simply put, most British Industry and Commerce is now European or other 'offshore' nation owned. Even the majority of the High Street Banks are EU owned, if not based. Much as I love the UK, I find the blinkered approach and the selfish self interest which drives the Unions, the Civil Service and the various pressure groups that bedevil the debate on anything from Defence to Integration, language or religion, tiresome and unedifying. For one thing the last thirty odd years have seen the UK become so dependent on membership of the EU that they can no longer stand alone. I suspect that this is why all the major Parties refuse to allow a Referendum - if they lost it they know the UK will become a third world basket case overnight.

My reading of history suggests that the €uro will survive and, sadly, because my pension is paid in Pounds Sterling, it will eventually become a far more attractive and stable currency than the Pound. The example from history is the US Dollar, once almost a joke, but since the dawn of the 20th Century, the biggest alternative 'investment' currency for any investor. That is changing and the Chinese, the Oil Sheiks and others are investing in the €uro. Every Yuan, Dinar or Shekel they put into the €uro makes it stronger against the Pound and a stronger €uro will mean jobs moving out of the UK and into Europe - whether the Eurosceptics like it or not.

I do not believe the Greek economy will be allowed to collapse. They falsified the books to get into the €uro and that has now caught up with them. I suspect the Greek Government will have no alternative but to bow to surrendering the control of their economy to the IMF. Failure to do so will see them expelled from the Euro, or, alternatively, the stronger economies will shift to a New €uro (Perhaps renamed as a €urodollar?).

As I see it the economic power has shifted - in fact shifted sometime in the 1970s - from London to Europe. Like it or not, the €uro in one form or another is the currency of the European States - and it is here to stay.

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