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Wednesday, 16 June 2010

Confused Climate?

I am amused to read that the abnormally cold winter we have just suffered is due to Arctic Warming. Yup, I had to pick my teeth up and put them back in as well. Now we have the media and the Research Funding community screaming that this year will see a 'record reduction in Arctic Sea Ice'. Since the data on how much sea ice is, to say the least, conflicting, I'm not at all sure who or what to believe on this.

Yes, there is less ice cover than twenty/thirty or forty years ago, but since 2007 it has apparently, according to the Russian Navy and the US Navy, been thickening in some parts of the Arctic Ocean. This last year saw a greater extent of sea ice in the Arctic basin than for the last ten, though some of it has actually already melted. The media screams that the Arctic is going to see the vanishing of the ice to a record low this summer (Everyone seems to quote 2007 as a sort of benchmark) because the temperatures in the Arctic have been 2 degrees above normal for the whole of May. They fail to mention that they are now back to 'normal' for the region and the ice melt appears to have slowed...

What is interesting is that the Southern Hemisphere, South Africa in particular, has just had the httest summer on record and is now having an exceptionally cold one. It snowed yesterday in Bloefontein. This is quite rare, even though the night-time temperatures there can fall to -10*C. From what I hear, the drought in other parts of the country has also broken with exceptionally cold weather bringing rain.

So is this just a weather cycle, or climate? Personally I don't trust the 'science' any longer because so much is excluded, not included or simply discarded because it doesn't fit the desired result. Now that politicians and civil servants are involved in the reports that simply means that the conclusions will be what they want people to think and will have nothing whatsoever to do with reality, truth or science.

As Admiral Tovey once snarled at his Meteorological Officer who had just told him that the gale they were currently battling through was clearing - "The trouble with you damned boffins is you refuse to look out f the damned scuttle!"

So a warming Arctic is going to mean wetter summers and colder winters...

Now where did I put my dried seaweed ...

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